Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$1.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$0.00 Betfair SP: +$0.50
It’s as break even as you can get over at Caulfield as we’re saved by a performance on #12 Bam’s On Fire in R8 from total stake loss, with a day of mixed results (and the Eastern Cup just 0.20L off being taken down by a $101 wheelbarrow) making it a difficult one to follow.
Starting with R2 and it was obvious that we’d be seeing slow speeds across the track with nobody really able to get much going out the gate, with just a small improvement coming out around 300m in.
It was a great early lead for us as we managed to take full advantage of the very average jump to sit ahead in first place as we grab a very happy $13.00/$15.07 around #11 The Commoner.
If we had to be picky, we’d probably say it was a dangerous move to hug the rail as tightly as we did, but we managed to lead by around three-quarters of a length at the 400m mark in what looked like we would power through our first bet with a massive collect.
The issue came just out of the 200m mark where it looked like we had gone straight into the quick sand with the true danger of the rail hug coming to the forefront as #10 Mystery Love found traction through the outside as the pack behind #4 Beautiful Flyer had a similar issue as our runner.
Although the official margin was 4.30L, in reality Winks will be lucky to escape the glare of place backers as it was clear to us that he had pulled up once it was obvious that he was getting passed.
We still think the performance was well and truly there right up to the 200m mark, and we absolutely smashed our rated price of $5.72 – it’s just a shame that we didn’t manage better track conditions with the easier run definitely up the middle in the late.
R4, however, was a huge change in pace as we pick up a solid price at $5.00/$6.29 but fail to see #10 Leiter deliver the goods as we put in a very average performance across a 1100m dominated by tight placings and very small margins.
Like R2, we saw a very slow jump with most runners failing to get anything in the way of distance underneath them as traffic stops us from getting a decent position out as the field sits clumped together past the 700m.
With nothing much changing through the bend, it wasn’t until the spread coming into the 400m that we see the clump of runners grate down with the conditions once again favouring the middle lanes as anyone stuck on the far outside or next to the barrier gets swallowed up.
For #10 Leiter it was the failure to get much in the way of an early run which was the critical failing here – with anyone stuck in the middle essentially forced back at the turn despite a reasonable effort to get clear at the 300m.
Another attempt at the 200m to slip through the hole is rebuffed as a push back on the ribs from #7 Redcore is enough to cut the mast on the speed and lock in the loss.
Given a better attempt at a more open run we think the 4 year old would have had a better chance, so it’s a shame to see the pick fail to perform against the rated price of $3.12.
The highlight of the day for race watchers cropped up in R7 with #12 Midterm just 0.20L off an incredible upset as the 7 year old smashes all expectations to take full advantage of the uncertainty around the track to finish 2nd after a late jet saw the gelding attempt to take on the $4.20 favourite #8 Inverloch.
We managed just an average price on our own pick #9 Salsamor as we see a great late position once again fail to convert in yet another trend seen across the day as we finish with a final margin of 6.60L.
Out of the gate it was #8 Inverloch leading whilst we had a kinder set up in the middle lane with #9 Salsamor right behind with what looked like a great early setup as we look to dodge the traffic issues on the barrier and outside.
With pace slowing down for #8 Inverloch we managed to catch up at the 1500m mark with #15 Vegas Knight on our flank, but it was here that we think the critical mistake was made as Stockdale took us right up to the rail and all but guaranteeing that he would be stuck come the late rush as what we had seen earlier.
Given the results and obvious issues around the earlier races, the smarter move would have been to push out on the outside in preparation for the turn and, coming into the 800m, it appears that #9 Salsamor is really having to bob that neck to get the same pace as #15 Vegas Knight who sat far more comfortably.
Looking at the great attempt to overtake on the curve, there just wasn’t enough space to get out having given away the advantage earlier on.
Despite another go at it just before the 200m, we were trapped in the same sticky situation on the inside as in the earlier race with #11 The Commoner, as #8 Inverloch continues an excellent run to finish well and truly clear as the middle section of the group follows cleanly to mess with the margins.
If you missed it in the earlier runs, the full effect of the track conditions up the middle can be seen perfectly on #12 Midterm as the 7 year old finds a fantastic bit of firmness in what would have surely had Dee on the defensive
Like the previous attempt on #10 Leiter, we don’t think this run was particularly negative in terms of the effort put out, but Stockdale really should have played up the strategy given the incredibly obvious trend around the map as he sees the early strong position all but guaranteed to go “bye-bye” the moment he made the choice to hug the rail.
About the only benefit for us here is that his next start will likely see the price take a jump, so under better conditions there may be another overlay worth taking.
All-in-all this is among the most disappointing result for us across the two meetings as what should have been a positive run was essentially given away off the back of a critical handling mistake.
In a positive twist for us at Caulfield, we managed to nab a decent price on #12 Bam’s On Fire with the only let-down being the very small margin between SP and BSP at $5.00/$5.01 respectively, which has Platinum members missing out slightly after commissions.
Outside of that, it’s about as good as it gets for a day like today as we lead right across the jump with the rain-fall compensated for ever so slightly with the run up the middle as #9 Sircconi goes for the early pocket with #8 Seabrook helping to slow the gelding down for us.
Come the 1000m mark and Jamie Kah made the smart decision to control the speed with a fantastic little head-down crouch as #8 Seabrook attempts to box us in but starts to show signs of slowing down at the 600m.
Like the rest of the races today, this one also went the way of basically the first group of horses to lead from the jump as the middle and back ends struggle to push the speed and make up for lost time.
We were super concerned coming into the 300m with #8 Seabrook gaining as we take up a position against the rail, but #12 Bam’s On Fire is just too good as the 4 year old is able to keep up the speed as the other mare is unable to gain back the tiring stitch from the earlier attempt to overtake.
The final kick came just before the 100m, but with the past handful of lengths showing clear strain on #8 Seabrook it’s all but over as we cross the line at an official margin of 1.30L.
Given the track conditions it’s an absolutely dominant win from the 4 year old at a very strong price. $2.70 favourite #5 Wild Planet is nowhere to be seen with yet another shocking mixed result identified in our preview that is sure to cause trouble for punters, whilst #8 Seabrook proves the worth as a wildcard putting in a decent attempt at it from an SP of $7.00.
The final one for the day and an equally disastrous result as #10 Fidelia gives up a strong early lead at $4.80/$5.45 a huge overlay against our rated price of just $2.90.
Frustratingly, we managed an incredibly strong jump with the grey jetting out and leading the pack with #1 Sikandarabad strong early pressure as we once again see the huge pack margins appear as the result of more rain really does a number on the runners’ ability to get ahead.
Hitting the first turn at the 1000m and it looked like Prebble had all the right moves as we shot out towards the middle to rebuff #9 Masculino and #5 So You Win from clawing back some of the distance.
Our major concern here was around being ridden too hard given the 1600m, with the risk of blowing the stamina never a good thing even in the best of conditions as we hit the turn just after the 500m with the margin all but closed up as the head bob comes to #10 Fidelia.
Showcasing some impressive turn of foot, #1 Sikandarabad cuts the corner as all the energy goes out of engine on #10 Fidelia just prior to the 200m mark as the group opens up to swallow the pace leader.
It was here that #4 Kentucky Breeze hit that sweet patch in the middle for the huge speed up that we saw from #12 Midterm in R7, with a similar late attempt coming in from #8 Super Titus.
Note that the official margins are a little iffy here with #10 Fidelia apparently in 12th come the 400m mark (we were 2nd) so if you’re looking into the official data be mindful that this appears to be a data entry mistake as both #5 So You Win and #10 Fidelia suffer late slow downs.
We’re quite disappointed with this run given that we think #10 Fidelia was ridden far too hard – much closer to what you would maybe see come through on a 1200m or 1100m length, and definitely not a strategy that we think is apt for a day like today.
Despite the final margin, there was nothing particularly wrong with the run and so we expect to see the mare back on our list soon – hopefully under better conditions and with a larger price to boot.
Overall a very disappointing set of races; particularly given the strong early runs that were let down by late mapping and failure from riders to consider the track biases thanks to the inconsistency of the rain.
Although we saw plenty of cases of this on runners that we didn’t back as well, it’s certainly frustrating to be stuck in the current quarantine conditions where we’re not able to get the best riders for the job, with the inexperience and quality shining through to cause hassles more than just a couple of times.
With that being said, it’s always far more difficult to cinch a win in these types of conditions and we didn’t really see a trend of weakness around the picks outside of the failure to map, with the markets largely lining up with where we needed them to be for our overlays.
We’ve been hoping for better track conditions to remove these variables from the table over the last couple of weeks but have been unlucky to get rained out more often than not, so hopefully we’ll see some improvements over the next few weeks before we get to the middle of the Winter season.
R2 - 13:00PM - Neds Same Race Multi Handicap (1100m)
R4 - 14:10PM - Neds Toolbox Handicap (1100m)
R7 - 16:15PM - Le Pine Funerals Easter Cup (2000m)
R8 - 16:50PM - Elvis Thurgood 40th Anniversary Cup (1400m)
R9 - 17:25PM - Neds Price Boost Handicap (1600m)
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