Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: -$350.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$175.00 Betfair SP: -$175.00
This is a resend – thank you to those members who reported issues with accessing the results; hopefully this little boot up the backside puts everything right again.
We’ve had some issues with emails coming through to smaller providers such as Hotmail, IiNet, Bigpond etc. this week, which we expect to sort themselves out shortly. This is very common with these providers and is something that they manage themselves so there’s nothing we can do except wait. This is definitely not the first time and probably won’t be the last as their infrastructure is years behind the rest.
Not much to crow about over at Caulfield as we fail to find a collect, with the only upside being that our results at Rosehill Gardens mean that we’re essentially break even for the day; which is a far better prospect than being right out of the market.
Starting off in R1 and it was an incredibly frustrating finish as it looked like #4 Sunday Pray had it in the bag at $9.50/$10.00 with a dominating run at the lead through both the 800m and 400m mark, with #3 Seberate largely following up behind at $11.00/$12.88 with a comfortable 3rd at the 400m.
Coming into the turn and it looked like #3 Seberate would make the run with a strong position on the outside of #7 Skiddaw looking the play whilst the danger sat just behind and back before #7 Skiddaw took the lead the 200m mark.
The nail in the coffin came for us a moment later at the 130m mark as Luke Nolen failed to push us further out, locking #3 Seberate in behind #7 Skiddaw as #5 Jester Halo and #1 Exasperate sat to his right, locking us in and denying us the last minute dash.
Meanwhile, the stitch came for #4 Sunday Pray right around the 200m mark, with the 6 year old putting up a great fight but not quite having enough left in the tank after leading the pack across 90% of the length.
Whilst we definitely think the value was had here – and that was clear by the dominating runs from both of our picks – it certainly comes down to the razor’s edge when it comes to traffic and late positioning – with #3 Seberate needing a kinder lead out from behind #7 Skiddaw and #4 Sunday Pray a victim of too much of an early run.
Moving into R5 and it was another strong price at the exchanges with #3 Vaucluse Bay locked in at $7.40 whilst the SP of $6.00 let a lot to be desired.
We jumped well to settle comfortably sitting next to #2 Odeon. The early lead we mentioned would be critical to the pace was nowhere to be found, with Bowman appearing to hold back on a full blast.
The run sat largely stable all the way through the 800m mark before the nod started coming from #3 Vaucluse Bay as we shot out to 3rd, but the danger to the run became clear at the 400m point as we get pushed nearer to the rail with #4 Secret Blaze coming from a very slow late position as #9 Dogmatic sits to the left and giving us no room to move.
From there it’s essentially game over as #6 Inverloch continues the very comfortable lead.
We mentioned that we didn’t see #4 Secret Blaze would play up to the short price, and with the late market contracting even further to $2.00 it was the smart play to avoid the favourite as the expected pressure came.
Whilst we sit comfortably with our price, frustratingly the decision to avoid the early run was costly as the late position left plenty to be desired and was all but over by the time the take-over came.
We skipped through R7 as the $2.80 “sure thing” #11 Alligator Blood is run down by 4.0L once again proving how the big Group races provide little in the way of actionable analysis or value.
With #5 Sopressa jumping at $14.00/$16.57 it was certainly a downgrade to our early $21.00 price so you did well if you saw the plunge coming.
This not only saw a large chunk of our value disappear, but it was also one of our most frustrating races for the day as we jump well and maintain a fantastic early margin sitting in a strong position maintaining 2nd coming into the 800m mark.
Looking at the times you’d think we had it all figured out, but it was a jump from the back half of the field and some incredibly lackluster jockeying from Michael Dee that saw us pushed into the pack once again as #2 Admiral’s Joker makes a massive run from 8th and #4 Guizot makes the perfect play on the outside of the pack coming in from 7th.
From there it was all over as we simply couldn’t get a position – with superior jockeying from Linda Meech getting the well deserved win.
In terms of results today, we saw a trend of the early lead being given up by the late stitch or bad positioning, with some very so-so decisions around late strategy costing us far more often than the runners themselves.
We largely managed to maintain value and think that we had it locked in for most of the run with the exception of #5 Sopressa who came in significantly as several of the other favourites drifted.
Traffic in the late section of the race was also problematic for us today with a consistent bit of trouble coming in despite a strong early position, so we would’ve liked to see some better decisions made around this in the future.
Whilst we end up essentially break-even across both meetings, it was worth the shot with some significant overlays getting close – with several of these runners probably pulling in bigger numbers for us next time around.
R1 - 13:05PM - Superior Food Services Grand Handicap Mile (1600m)
R5 - 15:25PM - Neds Mornington Cup Prelude (2000m)
R8 - 17:25PM - Neds Anniversary Vase (1600m)
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