Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$366.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$205.00 Betfair SP: +$183.00
We finish the day at Caulfield with a decent bit of cash in the pocket to help balance the constant big price places we saw over at Royal Randwick.
It was also very nearly a big fill-up for us as the biggest sting comes from #7 Think We’re Due at a whopping $18/$26.09 who led all the way through the 2000m in R4 to finish just 0.90L behind the win, beating out an incredible amount of value as we smash the overlay and embarrass the $1.90 “sure thing” #1 Mr Quickie.
As usual, it’s a razor-thin edge between these huge collects on these massive prices, with luck not quite working out our way this time around – although we’ll continue to argue that an $18 horse that runs just 0.10L off a $1.90 shot is about as bloody good as it gets in terms of giving the mugs a run for their money.
We start the day off in R1 with a very comfortable win from #6 Jumbo Ozaki as our double unit play lines up perfectly to carry us through the rest of the day with just under 7 units for both Basic and Platinum members as we see the price settle at $4.20/$4.33 giving us just a little bit extra value against the early price but nothing to crow about over at Betfair.
From the jump we sat comfortably in the middle before pulling back the speed to avoid the stitch as the danger we highlighted in the preview from #14 Arctic Shock and #5 Starouz came to fruition as both runners gained solid ground as they hit the curve at the 1000m in 3rd and 2nd place respectively.
#12 Vigere had put in a fantastic burst at the start but was already showing signs of upcoming fatigue with the pace looking disastrous as the 4 year old showed all the signs, hand in hand with #5 Starouz, of the head bob and jockey rhythm that we know signals trouble.
Hitting the 800m mark, Williams took a risky move to hug the rail and start to up the tempo once again as #14 Arctic Shock provided a bit of traffic through the middle lane, blocking in #7 Write Your Name as we slip up the hole.
As we ran into the curve at the 400m we thought we might have a bit of trouble ourselves as #5 Starouz had an opportunity for a sharper cross which would have pushed us back into the rail, but fortunately for us, Stockdale failed to spot the opportunity as we made a masterful dash across the gap before pulling in the middle to let #12 Vigere run himself out completely.
We called it just before the 300m with a run up on the flank from #14 Arctic Shock showcasing exactly why we called the danger in the preview,
#9 Sikorsky turned the boosters right on as Oliver scooted around the mid group, but the late turn off foot wasn’t enough to get them home – although place backers will be over the moon with the move from 9th to 2nd.
All in all, we settled the race very comfortably with the two units well won as the map goes our way to lock in a 320% POT/+$320 for Basic members and 333% POT/+$666 for Platinum members before comms.
R2 was a massive upset for #1 Twitchy Frank as the $2.30 “sure thing” absolutely ate a dirt sandwich past the 400m coming 9th at a margin of 5.90L, whilst #6 Clarice Cliffs got home without too much trouble having enough in the tank to justify the shorter price.
For our own bet in R3 it wasn’t quite that smooth as we sit in 5th with a very average run from #5 Sirius Suspect took down #2 Pippie with our overlay looking great – but not as impressive as the attempt from $61 #12 Street Icon!
The jump went incredibly well for the $2.00 favourite, as we got a very lackluster jump out ourselves as a costly recovery comes just the 1000m mark – but certainly mopping up plenty of the advantage that we should have had from our sprinter.
Our “danger” was highlighted in the preview with #4 Ashlor at $9.50 who had a fantastic jump and put very early pressure on #2 Pippie and proved to be quite the annoyance later in the run.
The first opportunity came for us just inside the 1000m as we had a very favourable position as we sat 4th with #6 Fine Dane buzzing around like a mosquito and blocking us in from getting the speed we needed.
It’s here that we see the let-down of the jump really cause the hassle as that early lost ground would have had us sit on the inside of #4 Ashlor as we pass the 600m.
The final opportunity here was just prior to the 300m as we really got the speed going, but were completely boxed in by #4 Ashlor and the quickly slowing #2 Pippie who effectively had us locked in against the barrier coming through the turn as the outside of the pack saw the field widen and our space to move dry up.
Outside of those two, the massive strides put in by #8 Vainstream were a force to be reckoned with as Callow single-handedly pushed the leaders into the walls to come on the outside and get the win.
#5 Sirius Suspect took the first opportunity to avoid the flail from #2 Pippie by crossing the field, but the lost distance from earlier on in the race was simply too much to overcome after the painful late position as we finish for a full stake loss.
As already mentioned, R4 was the most frustrating result for the day as we led with #7 Think We’re Due taking a full unit at a massive $18.00/$26.09 as Platinum members are rewarded with a huge chunk of additional value as the late exchange pushes out the overlay by an extra 31.01%!
Unlike R3, we had a perfect jump as we shot up in the rail to sit in front of the pack leaders with #6 Sentimentalist getting a macro view of our backside as #2 Sorpressa can’t take the pressure giving up the space to #5 Grand Crown as we continue to set a comfortable pace.
Hitting 1400m the head bob is a bit of a worry but 200m later and we look to be under control as #7 Think We’re Due seems to be enjoying the wind through the mane as #5 Grand Crown once again gets up close as #1 Mr Quickie is nowhere to be seen, sitting dead last in what would have been an in-play trader’s dream given the late result.
Coming into the turn at the 1000m and it’s a nice little cross as we block the potential for a rail run and force #5 Grand Crown to switch lanes whilst #6 Sentimentalist starts to make moves to secure the run up the middle.
The pack begins to tighten at the 750m mark but we once again get that happy head bob going as we speed up the pace as we get clear on the turn and block #5 Grand Crown’s final effort to push us into the sea as the burst of speed shows no sign of slowing down.
By the time the 200m hits, there’s no sign of slowing down – but we’re also not getting any bursts of speed left as #6 Sentimentalist takes full advantage of the back and forth battle with #5 Grand Crown to turn the jetpack on full blast, whilst #1 Mr Quickie comes on the outside to make up for lost time getting the nose ahead of us with little interference.
With #5 Grand Crown dropping back significantly, and an earlier bump into the lane from #7 Think We’re Due failing to put traffic in the middle, it looks like the open field was the biggest boost for #6 Sentimentalist as we maintained our strong pace and position all the way through to the end.
Outside of the obvious disappointment of getting no blood out of the stone this time around, we’re obviously super happy with the run as we finish just 0.85L off a massive collect and once again validate our ability to find the sleeping giants in the market.
We expect the price to come in significantly as other punters have now been shown the light, but no doubt there will be another go at it for us in the future.
Our last one for the day in R5 sees little return for the effort as #6 Mamzelle Tess sits at a very average position all the way through the race, whilst our “wildcard” in #9 Street Sheik manages to once again surprise with a strong 2nd as a hilarious result from #13 No Effort sees the official margin on the $41 runner set to 48.85L.
The win clearly went the way of #3 So Si Bon early with an excellent jump and the heads-down butt-up truly giving the 6 year old full reign as we settle comfortably in the middle at 4th coming into the 1250m with #1 Iconoclasm gearing up to take a nibble from the leader.
#4 Amadeus is putting in a decent fight as we break through the curve at the 1000m mark, but we’re not particularly worried yet given that we’ve got the far better map in preparation for what we hoped was the speed up on the straight.
The turn comes at 400m and we take full advantage of #8 Ken’s Dream who had Jamie Kah listing worse than a dinghy as he looks to be leaning the runner right into the barrier – giving us the opportunity to jet up the outside and watch the black hole swallow the 6 year old as we hit the 300m mark.
But, check the replay and it’s the 200m line where it’s all over for us as a wicked push from #3 So Si Bon just absolutely destroys us as Zahra shuts us down completely with a diagonal cross before #9 Street Sheik nails the coffin closed and all speed goes out like a popped balloon.
Unlike our result in R4 which was the competitor out-running the rest of the field, this time around it’s not for the lack of trying from the horse, but just some very lackluster jockeying that was clearly being outclassed by some superior movements in the competitors that directly impacted our ability to run.
The overlay was still definitely there but our poor mare simply wasn’t given the opportunity to run to her best ability.
We end the day with a profit that is once again sucked out by some close finishes in Royal Randwick, as we’re pretty happy with the over-all runs but just kicking ourselves over what (should, haha) could have been a much needed big winner for the membership in R4 on #7 Think We’re Due.
Without a doubt we’ve seen an improvement in the analysis given the return to normalcy with the weather conditions helping to give us that boost and removing plenty of the variables around the map.
Our average price was definitely up there today but we hit the overlays pretty much across the board with the edge clearly to be found – but just lacking in a couple of those critical collects.
As usual – we can only fudge the numbers our way with the control around variance and volume the key aspects that all-but-guarantee our long term results will (eventually) go our way.
R1 - 12:15PM - Neds Same Race Multi Handicap (1400m)
R3 - 13:25PM - Spendthrift Australia VOBIS Gold Sprint (1200m)
R4 - 14:00PM - Surewise VOBIS Gold Heath (2000m)
R5 - 14:40PM - IRT VOBIS Gold Mile (1600m)
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