Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$633.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$335.00 Betfair SP: +$316.50
Apologies for the very late results update – we’ve had some lingering tech issues causing havoc which have just been sorted out.
Fortunately, that’s the only problem we’ve had this weekend as we close in a solid day of profit against a strong POT of 167.50% for Basic members and 158.25% for Platinum members bringing in +$335 and +$633 respectively.
We saw BSP fail to provide much of a margin for us today, and many of the late prices came in significantly to the point where we saw liquidity disappear from the market and hence a couple of exchange bets actually coming in under the official SP.
Of course, it was a messy day over-all for most Punters but we managed to hit the nail on the head each and every time across our live bets so we came out far ahead of most of the favourite backers who would’ve been decimated.
Starting with R1 and we had a dominating win on #3 Paint The Town Two as we successfully take down the crowd favourite #4 Thousand Wishes to lock in a 1.00L win – a fantastic result against the 1600m.
Dunn had us very well positioned maintaining a strong pace on the outside as we let #1 Kardashing run itself dry at the 400m, whilst $6.00 #5 Necessary saw Dee let out the reigns too much as the 5 year old started to show signs of wanting to kick too hard at the 800m as she tried to dominate #1 Kardashing.
It was exactly this combination of badly timed energy burst and positioning which saw #4 Thousand Wishes pushed up against barrier and locked in behind the stitches whilst #3 Paint The Town Two started turning the jets on the outside at the 400m mark.
By the time we hit the 250m point it was all over as the fight between #5 Necessary and #1 Kardashing left them with nothing in the tank and a diagonal cross from #4 Thousand Wishes to get out from the behind the two cost valuable real estate – allowing us to kick at 100m and lock in the win.
#4 Thousand Wishes surprisingly had a bit of an effort in there as well but superior strategy on our part meant the 4 year old wasn’t able to get anywhere near us as we successfully peg the late stitch as the key to the win.
Price wise, we came in to an official SP of $5.00 and a poor BSP of $4.91 against the earlier $5.50 whilst we were right on the money as we saw very little erosion with #4 Thousand Wishes continuing to get the punter favour at a shockingly short $2.25 as we lock in about 4 units of profit off the first bet of the day.
As mentioned in the preview – there was no value to be had in R2 with a messy field proving it was the right play to stay out as weather conditions began to turn against consistency.
Fortunately for R3 it wasn’t enough to take down #3 Vaucluse Bay who put in a whopper of a win at a 2.50L margin whilst #4 High Bridge shocked backers of the $2.35 gelding with a 10.35L finish just ever so slightly ahead of the $101 wheelbarrow #6 Unrealistic.
In-play layers would have made a fortune here as Dunn missed the jump, whilst the jump went our way to sit a comfortable 1.50L ahead of the pack as the favourite gets pushed to the very back and against the rail.
Whilst we split the bets on #1 The Lord Mayor – picking up 3rd at 2.95L just behind #2 Home By Midnight at 2.50L – it was really nowhere near a competition as we maintained a dominating lead all the way across the track with an easy run as the leader through both the 400m and 800m with some incredible stamina on display.
The $21.00 runner #7 Mental Telepathy had a surprising go at what we thought was the best run from the rest of the pack before running into trouble out at the 400m with #1 The Lord Mayor positioning well for a late go at it on the far outside.
As is typical from some of the roughies stuck behind the leader, #7 Mental Telepathy was asking for more of a run than what Williams was happy to give and the fight against the reigns meant a costly handicap to speed as far back as the 1400m mark with this really coming home at the 1000m turn as #3 Vaucluse Bay made the comfortable pace look absolutely smooth as butter.
With the 800m closing in, #1 The Lord Mayor was still struggling for position as Poy slipped back to the outside at 5th, waiting for the chance to turn on the late jets; but what we think was far too back considering the ground which had begun to turn into glue as the Soft 6 gave us nothing to work with.
From there, #7 Mental Telepathy looked to be making a go at it past 700m, but it was exactly here that #3 Vaucluse Bay impressed us yet again by turning up the heat with nary a sweat as the pack opened up to swallow Williams with #1 The Lord Mayor not quite able to get the late run as the fantastic margin proves too much for the pack.
Although we expected #4 High Bridge to do quite well the early jump was a killer, whilst #2 Home By Midnight proved every bit the wildcard; but nowhere near enough to be more than a blip on the radar as we finish well and truly ahead.
We’ve backed #3 Vaucluse Bay a handful of times but this is the best performance we’ve seen out of the gelding so we expect the price to come in significantly shorter the next time around – and likely one that we’ll have to strategically lay or skip over completely.
Our last bet of the day was a late scratching on #4 Power Dream in the last – and to be honest having watched the rest of the races it’s probably for the best as the conditions had well and truly deteriorated by the time the race came about, with everything past the 5th turning into a quick-sand swimming pool.
Fortunately we finish with a solid day despite the low volume, and our decision to play into fewer units was definitely the correct one.
Perhaps the only thing we would have changed is having an extra unit on #3 Paint The Town Two – although this was one that we wanted to be more cautious about with our ratings showing more danger than expected, although the domination from #3 Vaucluse Bay was expected to be more of a competition with #1 The Lord Mayor.
Outside of that, punters backing other races saw massive upsets or short priced favourites that weren’t worth the risk especially with the rain causing unpredictability in the track conditions with #2 Jungle Edge the one to watch in R8 for the perfect example of why we think it’s next to impossible to correctly predict anything when the variables go out the window.
All in all, it’s a very strong start to February and a nice way to claw back the units that we left on the table the weekend before – although we would’ve liked to see significantly more value at BSP.
R1 - 12:35PM - IVE > Print Handicap (1600m)
R3 - 13:45PM - All Star Mile @ MRC March 14 Hcp (2407m)
R9 - 17:30PM - Catanach's Jewellers Handicap (1400m)
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