Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$83.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$95.00 Betfair SP: +$41.50
It’s essentially a break-even day for us at Caulfield as we hit our rated prices a couple of times and bring in a win in the last to get just under 2 units in the bank for Basic and just over 1 unit for Platinum (with #9 Miss Siska a whopping 10% margin in favour of Corporate SP!).
This helps to balance out the couple of positions at Rosehill Gardens which failed to collect, leaving us with another weekend where we had a decent shot of a big one but not quite enough for it to come in and give us that well needed result for the month.
Starting off early in R1 and we saw the markets recover on #9 Aktau from the lackluster $2.60 price, with our rating closer to $6.00 as the 4 year old manages to get the ribs in ahead of a wicked go at it from $18.00 #6 Inverloch.
We sat well on our backup bet in #10 Jaguary with a solid 2nd at the 800m and 3rd at the 400m as we got squeezed tight against #1 Rising Red on the right and #6 Inverloch on the left coming through to the turn with the pack opening up to take the outside and Dunn deciding to pull the accelerator back a bit.
Whilst we’re happy with the early performance out of the 4 year old, the 2000m was a bit too much for him this time around – with a 1600m probably the better go for him off the stamina put out today. We certainly think some better decisions in the mapping would have helped with that pressure.
#4 Future Score held the throttle back until late, with a smart jump on the tail of the inside allowing us to take 3rd.
Pace here was a little slower than we would have liked, and we expected that Williams would have been smarter to take it closer to the outside instead of deciding to smush up against the barrier – particularly giving the leisurely pace offered across the 2000m.
Picking up the 3rd, it’s a small bonus for Basic members, whilst we are still arguing in the office over which of the two deserved it more – with the votes currently going to #4 Future Score having put in the far superior run.
From there we move into R4 as we net a huge price on #8 Power Dream with a $21.00 at the corporates dwarfed by a BSP of $27.88 at the exchanges.
From the jump we were doing fantastically well as we hit a strong stride in 3rd at both the 800m and the 400m mark trailing behind an absolutely massive run from #3 Greysful Glamour who lead the pack the entire way.
We had a slight margin towards #6 News Girl as the one most likely to come through the outside – and through the outside it came just outside the 900m mark with a length and a half between us and the pack leader with #3 Greysful Glamour showing a machine-like stamina with absolutely no look of slowing down.
At the 350m mark it looked like we’d have our chance to absolutely gun it out as Egan took a strong position in the middle with no traffic, but the mare decided she’d had enough and took him diagonally into the pack and sealing the deal early as all energy reserve jumped out.
This was incredibly costly to the performance but with the 5 year old pretty much over it, we saw our last moment chance become a flail as the runners previously stuck behind her managed to over-take and go for a dash.
If we had gotten a better position we likely would have still had a battle ahead with #3 Greysful Glamour setting a strong lead early and continuing through it completely with the 1.0L margin an incredible effort especially at the market price of $9.50 – and one that we’ll be taking on board for further analysis in another opportunity.
With slim picking across the rest of the track we managed to get the collect in the last with #9 Miss Siska coming in for the win – with a weirdness in the prices seeing BSP plunge around 10% under the corporate SP; something we haven’t seen all too often lately.
As expected, #4 Kings Will Dream came in significantly from the early price to settle at a far more reasonable $3.10, whilst we managed to largely maintain the value at an SP of $4.20 with #5 Regal Power also drifting to $3.90.
In a way, we’re lucky that punter sentiment decided to spread across the field – likely a result of the earlier track conditions scaring the punters away – as we see just a small margin go our way.
We kept a comfortable fight for the lead against the barrier as our prediction on #7 Odeon proved correct – with the decision to take an early run at the 1350m mark a costly one for them, but a fantastic one for us, as it left little in the tank for the late run when the brakes came and we managed to push the 6 year old into the wall come the 1000m mark.
#3 Levendi ($51.00) had an exceptional early position coming in 3rd ahead of #4 Kings Will Dream, with the stitch coming at just past the 400m mark – those 200m we mentioned in the preview simply being too much for the 5 year old – although credit must be given to a very solid go at it.
The energy had all but gone out of #7 Odeon by the time we got to the pinnacle of the turn, which was key to our victory as #9 Miss Siska maintained 2nd with both runners up against the rail as we forced #4 Kings Will Dream to fight for the diagonal as a big effort came to very nearly run us down.
Running this same race a couple of times over would have seen quite the risk, but we were fortunate to have #7 Odeon help significantly off the back of that early run, with perhaps a slight change to the late pace on #9 Miss Siska providing some more blocking ability on #4 Kings Will Dream.
Netting in the 0.20L margin is certainly a nail biter and Zahra had an excellent effort at it despite the final result.
With this being the win for us today, it’s enough for us to close off a technically profitable day – although we’re over-all not too excited by the result.
We’ve pretty much said all that needs to be said on the small sample size for today, with messy results across the board supporting our decision to cull the outlay across today’s meeting.
Obviously we’re not impressed by a largely break-even result, but taking in some perspective we’re always happy to take a break-even or slightly profitable day and have a couple shots at it so long as the hits get near enough for us.
We would’ve liked to see a slightly better performance out of #8 Power Dream with the surprising reaction from the mare likely her unhappiness at being almost clipped on the heels by the tight pack.
Over-all, we managed to hit the in-play numbers that we needed to prove the ratings, with just the final few hundred meters being the trend of the let down across the bigger prices today.
With that being said, essentially nothing went the way of the favourites today, so we made the right choice to pursue some of the bigger numbers.
R1 - 12:35PM - Keno Classic Handicap (2000m)
R4 - 14:20PM - Premier Signs Mannerism Stakes (1400m)
R9 - 17:30PM - Carlton Draught Peter Young Stakes (1800m)
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