Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: -$283.34
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$106.67 Betfair SP: -$141.67
Although just a small number of bets over at Caulfield we largely see the selections fail to put in the effort required, with some close calls on #3 Titan Blinders and #2 Amadeus the difference between a winning and losing day.
Starting in R2, #3 Titan Blinders failed to deliver the early result we needed as the price shot down to just $3.66 – a few cents away from being cancelled for Platinum members and just 0.40L off what should have been a comfortable win.
The early pace was very average as we saw the field running to map before a shot out from #2 Jentico put the pressure on as we gave up the 1st place lead we held across both the 800m and 400m to let the 4 year old shoot up beside us.
With the price bouncing between the two it definitely looked like it could have gone either way, with an interesting late pump from #4 Copper Fox enough to add some excitement as #5 Write Your Name fails to get anywhere near the place.
The price was incredibly short with our runner being well backed across the market as the SP of $3.20 pales in comparison to the BSP of $3.66 – although all a moot point as we pick up 2nd.
Heading into our second opportunity at Caulfield all the way out in R6 we saw that #2 Amadeus had shot out past $14.00 making for an impressive overlay at our rated price of $4.98 as the scratching of #4 Street Sheik sees money coming for #6 Sure Knee and #9 Mount Tabora.
In our own case, the removal of one of the top raters threatens to cause major changes to the map so it’s not the most ideal situation to be stuck in as the value pulls right back at the jump at just $9.50/$9.62 as late liquidity once again falls through a floor with the small delay.
Although we traded down way past our rated price to hit a very short $2.80 as #9 Mount Tabora faltered, the entire field became a complete mess with #5 Kazio, #3 Beau Balmain and #6 Sure Knee causing the books to go mad as they bounced between $2.00 and $4.00 each.
If you didn’t watch the race, you’d have thought it was yet another short favourite win as #6 Sure Knee takes it, but looking at the margins across the race we can see that the stitch came for us whilst the loss of #4 Street Sheik caused the expected messiness at both the 400m and 800m as we gave our 2nd place dominance away.
Looking at the margins it’s clear to see exactly how close it was across the board with the late stitch costing us the win to finish 4th with just 0.70L the difference.
#9 Mount Tambora managed to recover at the end coming all the way from a whopping 6th to get in 2nd by 0.10L whilst #5 Kazio steals the place from us at a margin of 0.50L and just the neck ahead.
Frustratingly, everything was going incredibly well for us and what should have been a solid win saw the last 400m give up the position to the outside runners as we ran out of stamina.
Outside of perhaps a small reduction to 1400m better suited, we’ll likely have another play on the same runner in the future as we’re still sitting behind the decision to get out there – especially given the price to performance ratio – we simply didn’t see it eventuate this time around.
Less impressively on the face of it, our half stake on #3 Favonski in R7 landed smack bang in the middle of the results at a margin of 2.70L, making us feel only slightly better as our $21.00/$27.41 super roughie managed to sit only half a length behind the $3.00 favourite #2 Our Campana.
We successfully balanced outlay against expected value this time around, and we were very happy with the final price, but looking at the overall pace we would’ve needed nuclear-fission powered rockets to take down #6 News Girl who had a dominating beat on #8 O’So Hazy to take first by a whopping 1.50L.
Removing the outlier as a performer in the same race, we would have likely seen #3 Favonski demonstrate much better running ability and although this time around it clearly wasn’t right for her, we’ll put her in the back pocket for another opportunity in the future as we still think she could surprise quite a few with the right conditions.
The stand-out loser across the entire day fortunately only managed a 1/3rd stake as #11 Garbhan fails to show an iota of effort despite the similar price to #3 Favonski back in R7.
Although we had peeled back the outlay significantly, the performance here is nowhere near where we pegged it and there’s little that went right for us this time around – especially compared to the close misses in the earlier races.
Most frustratingly, we had maintained a solid position at both the 800m and 400m as we mentioned was necessary in the preview, as we nabbed 2nd and 4th respectively, sitting pretty behind winner #6 Vaucluse Bay.
The massive loss of speed came in as we were pushed up the inside of the barrier around the turn and by then there was no recovering as the pack pushed around us in a disappointing finish.
Whilst the margin is huge, pulling him back completely once it was clear that the seas had opened up to swallow him makes sense in all but a prize money perspective as there was absolutely no hope of recovering.
This one is, therefore, a tricky one to peg – the early run was fantastic but a lack of strategy around the position and a loss of stamina was a killer combination but a the same time the horse was clearly pulled out of contention so the margin is a bit misleading in terms of actual performance.
We’ll likely need to debate this one internally before considering another shot at the 2000m but we were still on the mark for most of the track so there’s obviously something there worth exploring.
With just those handful of positions it’s a small losing day at Caulfield as we get close yet so far.
Unfortunately as almost always happens, we’ve had a similar result over at Royal Randwick to make it a double whammy as we see no return for the effort at either tracks.
As mentioned in the race summary itself, we don’t think we were particularly far off having a decent day, but obviously we’re always playing on that edge and the short margins are irrelevant if we aren’t able to get the nose in for the fat collect.
Regardless, like all things in racing, we expect periods of ups and downs; anyone promising something else is full of shit. In the big picture this is a small blip on the results sheet – it’s just disappointing to have the effort from the mid-week clawed back by the Punting gods.
R2 - 13:30PM - DrinkWise Plate (1400m)
R6 - 16:00PM - The Mary Bell (1600m)
R7 - 16:40PM - Le Pine Funerals Hcp (1100m)
R9 - 17:55PM - MRC Thanks Fire Services Hcp (2000m)
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