Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$874.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$355.00 Betfair SP: +$437.00
Obviously the results system once again failed to trigger (we’re aware of the delicateness of it at the moment and are working on a full replacement shortly) so here’s a resend for those who didn’t get it:
An absolutely fantastic start to the results for us in April as we nab 2 winners out of 3 tips – an incredible return of 236.67% POT for Basic members and a much higher 291.33% POT for Platinum members as we see the exchanges once again start to show some of that high liquidity-high price that we’re used to seeing in better parts of the year.
With the results across the rest of the tracks almost exactly as we called it, we’re happy to say that we obviously managed to skip over the majority of the danger whilst being well rewarded despite the pull back in outlay.
As mentioned (to no end, haha) in many of our emails; in lots of situations the best option is simply not to play and we’ve found that comparing to our “full outlay” strategy from earlier in our career we actually manage most of the reward with significantly less outlay and stake risk.
Skipping over R1 (with a $101 third by just 1.10L!) we lead a dominating with with #8 Mirimar coming in significantly to just $4.60/$5.05 from the early $6.50 with punters jumping right off #1 Inverloch (from $3.00 to $4.20 at SP) as we crash home by a whopping 1.30L from 2nd and 3.30L from 3rd.
Through the jump we got the perfect position as the barrier side of the field crashed into each other, allowing us to squeeze through the outside as #1 Inverloch shoots out ahead of us slightly. #4 Beau Balmain missed the start completely with the 5 year old seemingly pushing against McNeil as the costly jump sees them place dead last at 8.80L when all is said and done.
The barrier-side pack makes an attempt to return around 2300m but by the 2100m mark both #1 Inverloch and #8 Mirimar have managed to skirt through the outside to pick up a very strong position heading into that curve as we pick up the right spot on the barrier.
At this point, our major concern is keeping the speed up and avoiding being pushed into the barrier as we sit just on the inside of the gelding.
We start to see #8 Mirimar slow down as it feels like we’re spotting the first major bit of that Heavy 9 with the area around the barrier absolutely sucking out the energy, with #1 Inverloch jetting out ahead and #7 Good Idea not far behind as we hit the 1700m.
With little excitement going on and no runner able to put in any sexy moves, we’re about 2 and a half lengths behind at the 1200m mark as the pack begins to compress as it looks like we’ll be a victim of that early concern around being stuck up against the barrier.
At the 700m mark we start to spot the signs that #1 Inverloch is pushing too hard, whilst #7 Good Idea is in a similar boat as the neck starts to look like a bobble toy, before a gorgeous move through the middle at the 400m on that lovely turn sees us overtake the 5 year old and pit us up against #1 Inverloch once again.
As we’ve managed to maintain a healthy pace without too much expenditure into an early lead we start to see the effects of #1 Inverloch’s early boost hit full bore with the stitch at the 300m as #8 Mirimar turns on the the head dip boosters and the early crow coming from us at 100m with it all but over as we nab the win.
The attack here was incredibly well planned despite some issues around traffic and the nastiness of that cling to the barrier – but given the huge energy expenditure coming out of #7 Good Idea as well as the favourite #1 Inverloch it was a masterfully executed coup.
We mentioned in our preview that we were expecting a wildcard performance out of both #6 Yulong Rising and #7 Good Idea, and they’ve converted that with 3rd and 4th respectively; although putting in performances that we would call average at best.
With the late margin going the way of Platinum members it’s a decent collect to start us off with our first of the day at the messy track.
We made the right call to skip over R3, R4 and R5 with the results in R4 and R5 in particular showcasing the random pish-posh of runners that we expected in the conditions.
Unfortunately the result was just so-so for us in R6 as we give up a solid early lead at the 400m with the $4.20/$4.85 around #4 Parsifal getting stuck in the latter half of the run to a huge push from #6 Diamond Effort coming in from 7th after punters had all but thrown down the favourite in-play.
In order to get this, we needed to escape from the mud-slide and get an early dominating lead, but coming into the 500m mark it was a far cry from the needed lead as we sat 5 abreast against #5 Ashlor, #10 Inn Keeper and #1 Malibu Style.
From here it still looked like we had a massive chance as we hit the 200m mark but it was clear to us just before the 100m line that #4 Parsifal was struggling to get the legs right as the pace drops right out of the bottom.
#6 Diamond Effort put an incredible fight here with an envious in-play price as #14 More Than Exceed gives the mare plenty of trouble before finally getting the clear to take down the tired front leaders.
As our roughie, #14 More Than Exceed looks like he did a solid finish in the results and comfortably held the big price coming 4th at 1.60L managing to turn an abysmal 8th at the 400m into a much better result on paper.
However, we think both #6 Diamond Effort and #14 More Than Exceed were incredibly lucky to have the pack compress as much as it did, with them both spending the majority of the distance stuck eating clods of dirt from everyone else – and we so we proudly sit with our lay analysis on the favourite.
Heading into the final with R8 as we nab another winner on #4 Exasperate at $5.50 as the exchanges lead a whopping margin at $6.69 more than making up for the extra commission paid as Platinum members take home the cake.
It’s a small drop to the early $7.00 price as several scratches cause deductions across the field which we *mostly* manage to skip through.
The dreaded torrential downpour was well and truly in play as we slowed down to a snail’s pace and visibility dropped significantly.
Our early position was nothing to gloat about as we come into the 1200m with #8 He Ecksels, #6 Black Sail , #3 Charossa and #1 Royal Ace all fighting for the first 4 positions as #4 Exasperate sits on the outside in what would have been a great little nab for in-play backers.
We see the moves come quickly just after 800m as Aitken sticks the bum in the air to push for a fantastic position to sit 3rd with the two leaders threatening to run themselves into the barrier.
As we’ve seen across the day, the strip up the middle and the outside have been far kinder to the runners with the bulk of the mud seeming to be on the inside – a trap that #8 He Ecksels and #7 Benitoite well and truly fall into as we hit the perfect line around the 300m mark.
In our preview we mentioned that we were a huge lay on #7 Benitoite and at a slightly longer $2.70 after deductions we still happily take down the favourite with the stitch coming only slightly later than we expected at the 200m mark to finish 3rd at a margin of 2.60L
For our own runner, it’s here at the 100m mark that the victory is sealed as #3 Charossa has a costly effort to get past traffic as we lead a comfortable length and a half ahead to shut down the attempt and lock in the big win.
We’re very happy with the run here as the strategy played from the 800m was impressive – and even more so given the absolute state of the weather – as our early questions on the map around #13 Vungers and #14 Aussie Nugget are put to rest as both scratch out and we’re able to take full advantage of our lane.
We’re still confused as to what it was exactly that had punters jumping on the #7 Benitoite bandwagon as the race ran exactly how the mare always does it; either failing to take advantage of the late attempt, or running out of steam completely. However, the short price was a boon to us today as it meant that we were largely able to come out unscathed against the scratchings to lock in a very solid price and a much needed win.
Whilst it’s a small sample size of races we’re happy to be in positive territory to start us off in the month of April – particularly given the horrendous weather conditions that we managed to work around almost completely.
We’ve gone through most of the bits and pieces in the individual race reviews so we won’t have much more to add here except to reiterate that we take a lot of factors into play around our outlay so we may not necessarily always make what appears to be the logical decision when it comes to the number of bets and outlay that we play with, but there are very good reasons around our internal data and ratings for the decisions that we make so trust that we’ve compensated for most of them in our expected play.
We were very happy to see that Betfair is holding up superbly – we’re hoping that this is a positive on-flow of the “stay at home” punter giving the exchanges their money and not because the Corporates have decided to up their percentages. We’re keeping an eye on this across multiple race days to see if we can spot the pattern in what is an industry lately lacking any sort of good news.
For now, let’s pat ourselves on the back for not only surviving a tough weekend but managing to thrive where others would have lost the shirt off their back!
R2 - 13:00PM - Geoff Murphy Handicap (2400m)
R6 - 15:35PM - Lamaro's Hotel Handicap (1000m)
R8 - 16:55PM - Neds Same Race Multi Handicap (1600m)
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