Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: -$350.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$87.50 Betfair SP: -$175.00
Despite a very close bit of action, our pair of bets fails to see a return as we miss out on a double unit collect by just 0.75L to take us into winning territory.
Firing our first volley in the late race of R2 we saw no return for the effort as our double units on #2 Pierrless is unable to take down crowd favourite #6 Red Heeler locking in a 2nd by just 0.75L as we settle at an SP of $5.50 and a BSP of $6.75.
We don’t have too many complaints here outside of the obvious – the run was on point and #6 Red Heeler was simply able to keep the pressure up longer. At an SP of just $2.70 and a BSP of $2.77 we were definitely on the value and the two unit stake lined up nicely with the final performance even if it wasn’t a collect this time around.
For our final play of this incredibly short day, we managed to see late prices favour our positions on both #6 Little Rich Boy and #1 Condos Express as we push through $23.00 and $6.00 before settling at $17.00/20.86 and $5.00/$6.30 respectively.
This time around the pace wasn’t quite where we needed it to be as #2 Alabama Express and #4 Banquo put in strong early efforts before the crowd favourite #2 Alabama Express managed to nab it.
We had very little in the way of an attempt on #1 Condos Express as we finish 3.20L behind with a failed attempt for a late jet not enough to overcome the leader’s margin or the tight pace of the top half of the pack.
The expected effort from #6 Little Rich Boy appeared late but it wasn’t quite enough to convert into the win as we pick up another sleeping giant to finish 2nd by 2.00L – although at the prices available in the market it was definitely worth the attempt and would have made for an exceptional result as we lock in two $20+ winners in the same day.
We were correct on the rating from #3 Sansom with the run matching our internal numbers, whilst the lay of #4 Banquo also ends up being justified against the 3rd place run at an SP of just $3.30.
With just the pair of positions, we settle at a loss at Flemington with the unfortunate close finish from #2 Pierrless the most disappointing with just 0.75L between it turning into a very solid day.
We definitely hit the value with #6 Little Rich Boy’s massive go at it and yet another 2nd place double digit to add to the increasingly growing list over the last 4 weeks joining #5 Magic over the Bay, #7 Bigboyroy and #5 Morvada for big priced near misses. Of course, with the ranks of #7 Ice Frost and #3 Power Dream and today’s big winner at Rosehill with #14 Roseirro, the return on these high value positions has been exceptional.
The 2.00L margin is probably a bit far off where we would have liked it to be but in this particular race it’s a very solid result, although we’re unlikely to see this big price again now that the rest of the market has been alerted to the massive hole in punter sentiment and our hidden edge.
Across the small sample size it’s a disappointing result although taking it in context we were largely where we wanted to be in terms of locking in value and prices with members following at BSP netting a much larger margin than SP, bringing us back up to the expected price arbitrage opportunities we typically see over at Betfair.
As mentioned in the preview – we don’t typically see so few bets although the +EV this time around was definitely top of the grade for us; we would’ve liked to see at least one collect to make it worth the effort.
R2 - 15:50PM - Donate to Foodbank Victoria (1720m)
R3 - 16:30PM - Donate to Salvation Army Disaster Appeal (1100m)
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