Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: -$200.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$100.00 Betfair SP: -$100.00
No return for the results today at Flemington as we see plenty of mixed results and form with leaders in most of the races getting beaten to the pip with our own runners sitting somewhere in the middle.
Of course the articles going round now are about how Vow and Declare didn’t pass the sniff test – we want to say “no shit, sherlock” as the 4 year old gets completely dominated by the field in R2.
We weren’t sure how the gelding jumped at $1.90/$1.99 but obviously it was well backed as punters refused to back down – only to be rewarded with an abysmal performance with a margin of 4.10L as both #6 Mirimar and #8 Jack Regan put in the pressure early before #3 Haky managed to steal the win from #7 Sin To Win after a late back and forth in the market.
Our own price late was strong on the early $7.00 #6 Mirimar as we once again saw the exchanges perform well with Platinum members being rewarded by a late drift out to a whopping $12.00 whilst the official SP sits at a far shorter $8.50.
We jumped incredibly well, shooting right up out the middle next to #3 Haky and #1 Vow and Declare before a bit of a sandwich effect at the 2400m saw the right side of the field able to take advantage and our own speed come down slightly as we look to avoid the interference as we chase down #1 Vow and Declare and make Williams regret getting off the rail as we hit the 2300m.
Coming into the first turn and #3 Haky was already making moves as the 6 year old pushed closer to the rail position behind a cross from #13 Scholarly, well and truly locking #1 Vow and Declare in for the ride, as #10 Beau Balmain makes a decent partner leading the action and we sit comfortably in the middle just behind the traffic.
Passing through the 2000m and we’re still sitting well in what we think is a great position for taking on the late outside attempt, as the leaders start to tire themselves out pushing several lengths ahead. Outside of a push from #11 Skelm who Yandall was trying to control, there’s not much change in the position as we sit neck and neck with #1 Vow and Declare all the way through 1200m.
We hit the 800m and the pack compressed, with the perfect spot opening up for us as we pass through 700m and stick to the outside of the group, before we hit the straight and #2 Ventura Storm pushes through alongside #11 Skelm and we get swallowed up behind them.
There was still a chance to recover here, but Poy wasn’t quick enough as Nugent spotted the hole and sent #7 Sin To Win to fill it up before going on to give #3 Haky a decent go at it in the final 50m to finish 3rd at 0.80L.
After recovering from the early “sandwich”, we had a very strong position to play with coming to the final stretch, but the strategy failed to convert as the burst we were waiting for was simply left too late, with the critical mistake coming in twice; once where space was given to #2 Ventura Storm to overtake on the outside, and the final nail in the coffin where we let #11 Skelm take the opening uncontested as the energy ran out of the middle of the pack.
It definitely wasn’t a case of the horse being incapable of a performance – we’ve seen great stuff from #6 Mirimar more than a few times – but we don’t think the ride was given the opportunity here, and definitely had no chance when looking at the two repeat mistakes.
Surprisingly we don’t think the length was too much trouble for us this time around up until the final 200m, but the weird pace seen on the rest of the pack – particularly on #13 Scholarly and #10 Beau Balmain along with the “all bark and no bite” bursts seen in the outside at the 300m suggests that the traffic was particularly difficult to exploit given the late position – and the extra few hundred meters may simply be out of range for many of the runners that we saw today.
Shooting to our second race in R7 and we pretty much hold steady on the market as #13 Esperance settles at $5.00/$5.80 with the margin once again given to Platinum members as the extra bit of cash more than covers the commission despite the relatively small price.
From the jump we had a very interesting crossing of the field from #5 Never No More – which didn’t do much to help the mare’s results but certainly caused some mayhem in the early couple hundred meters – as we get the traffic right across the front of us from out of the gate.
Dunn had a tough job of it with another cross from #14 Murillo cutting short as he had to fight with the horse to stop him from having a go, with the neck pull well and truly showcasing the 5 year old’s frustration to being trapped between the two crossers, before we pass the 800m line as we let #11 Holbien open up the lane for us near the outside.
Coming into the 500m and we can still barely find room to get a full neck-bob in with traffic being absolutely killer as #12 Prezado makes one more half-cross to clear the line and turn on the boosters.
By now, the speed had really started to pick up for us here coming into as we finally hit full stride now having a clear open position, but it was obvious that our chances of making up for lost speed were likely already behind us.
With the top half of the field starting to show signs of slowing down, it was once again #12 Prezado that took full advantage alongside #1 The Inevitable who had an enviously good late run up the rail whilst we really hit the right pace at the 100m – but just far far far too late to make a difference.
Although it’s a disappointing 2.90L margin, we really had very little opportunity to get a proper run out of #13 Esperance with the horse’s sprinting ability only having an opportunity to shine through at the end.
The early pair of cross-lane runs were really what caused the trouble for us, as both #14 Murillo and #5 Never No More not only cutting off our jump, but then came together to sandwich us down to a slow pace.
Given a better shot, we definitely think #13 Esperance would be a force to be reckoned with and it’s unfortunate that we didn’t get much in the way of a chance to see him flex his full skillset.
Against the very mixed form today, we made the correct choice to pull in the outlay.
$31.00 #10 Saint Eustace and $26.00 #13 Wahine Toa in R6 had 0.40L between them, whilst $41 #10 Kuramae in R3, the top 3 of the field in R2 and $21.00 #8 Ironedge in R1 were all perfect examples of the pacing issues that we expected to see across most of the meeting today.
Whilst blind backing the favourites would have still paid off quite well – the value definitely wasn’t to be had and we’d expect them to lose out over the long run.
Of course, the stand-out lay was incredibly obvious to us in R4 and the pack of double digit runners that lead the field there are yet another reason for us to have decided to pull it back.
We don’t usually see these kinds of days often, but post-Autumn carnival and with a calming down of the industry around COVID-19, it’s clearly the right time for runners to come back and put runs on the board, which occasionally culminates in days like this one where nobody really knows what’s going where and the prices seemingly come out like a set of dice.
R4 - 14:50PM - William Newton VC Handicap (2600m)
R7 - 16:35PM - WGCDR Ian Bayles DFC (1000m)
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