Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$794.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$530.00 Betfair SP: +$397.00
A massive bump to the results as we nab a $26.00/$24.88 winner in our first in R4, with a handful of close finishes across the rest of the day showcasing exactly how close we came to making it an absolute rort.
The big one is first up with a massive price on #9 Paint The Town Two in R4 with an SP of $26.00 and a last minute dive on the liquidity at BSP with $24.88 to be found, with our full stake play on #7 Fabric at $7.50 managing to get beat out near the end.
With just the nose going our way against #6 Bam’s On Fire, we’re certainly lucky to have had it settle well for us!
Jumping out well, the race was lead early by #2 Greysful Glamour with our full bet on #7 Fabric sitting comfortably behind on the outside in 2nd, whilst #9 Paint The Town Two mirrored the position next to #6 Bam’s On Fire two lengths back.
As has been the trend on the conditions today, a large part of the pack was caught back with a failure to get in the early run meaning they’re stuck sitting in the stickier part of the run.
The pace essentially ran exactly like that all the way up to the 600m mark where the field began to condense as #2 Greysful Glamour showed no sign of slowing down despite failing to unglue herself from the barrier as pressure from #7 Fabric threatened to push her right in.
Come the 300m mark and this is exactly what happened, with #7 Fabric trying to have a nibble, whilst #9 Paint The Town Two came up the middle as our two bets have an absolute go at it.
In an excellent attempt to steal our crown, #6 Bam’s on Fire took the risky move to shoot straight up between the two mares at the 150m mark, but the gamble paid off exceptionally well as Dunn put the pressure on and forced us into overdrive as we get the nose ahead for an official margin of 0.10L as #7 Fabric gave up on the position to settle back at 1.10L in 4th.
The most interesting part of the race for runners will be how #2 Greysful Glamour appeared to just turn off the engines past the 200m point to finish dead last – we’ll be following this one up to see if it was a strategic decision or if it might hint at some issues for the vet to look into – from our view it appears that the 4 year old was just simply gasses.
In terms of our big collect, we had the rated price for our mare sitting at just over $10.00, so as an overlay we locked in close to an extra 200% of additional value for a very strong win.
Moving into R5 and it’s a frustrating result as we settle in 2nd after getting a solid price of $10.00/$11.00 on #9 Sirius Suspect.
Jumping incredibly well and taking the lead early by the 1100m mark, it certainly looked like we had all the jets on as #4 Cradle Mountain kept a length and a half back in 2nd with #10 Wild Planet conserving energy up against the barrier 3 lengths back.
Traffic played a massive variable here with the pack caught behind each other coming into the 750m mark as #10 Wild Planet began making moves to come out through the inside as we sat comfortably by 2 lengths at the corner.
Looking at the in-play market, we began counting our 9 unit collect as #10 Wild Planet slipped all the way back with 4 lengths to gain past the 400m point.
We certainly saw the stitch come for #4 Cradle Mountain whilst we maintained the lead, but it was the 280m where we saw #10 Wild Planet turn the boosters on to cut through the outside as we get pegged at the 150m.
With nothing really left in the tank to put in to compete, we got overtaken with 50m left to go to settle 1L behind in 2nd.
Without a doubt this was the stand-out value pick in the race and we well and truly need to pat ourselves on the back for finding such a strong run given the $2.00 available on #10 Wild Planet.
Whilst there isn’t any massive upset this time around, we think that the decision to go hard early was the issue, with Lane failing to run the pace such that there would be a little left in the tank, although some fantastic jockeying from Dunn to avoid getting trapped up against #4 Cradle Mountain was obviously at play with an exceptional effort needed to get over that 4 length margin.
Disappointingly, that means we miss out on locking in an absolute killer day by the length, although we’d certainly love to see the same race run a couple of times over.
As R6 was set to jump we managed to get $10.00 on our full unit #1 Gytrash at SP whilst Platinum members saw an exceptional $12.64 on the books with BSP well and truly flexing the margin after some lackluster prices across the day.
As has been the trend for today, we picked up a 3rd with the 4 year old putting in an excellent performance to give the two favourites a go for their money, but unable to nab the collect this time around
From what we could see, the sprint was a bit of a mess with the entire pack converging into each other at the 900m mark with just a small margin between #12 Banquo, #5 Bivouac and our pick #1 Gytrash as we sat comfortably to the inside.
We were expecting the jump to come up behind #12 Banquo around the 500m mark, but it was traffic from #11 Loving Gaby that squeezed us into an unfavourable position that handicapped us all the way to the end.
With that being said, it would have taken an exceptional effort to take down the leader as #5 Bivouac was completely in the clear from the 350m mark, with a run up the outside from the 200m all but locked in at the 75m as a massive effort paid off well for Glen Boss.
Whilst we’re not calling this a bad run by any stretch, the inability to outmaneuver #11 Loving Gaby was costly with the margin of 3.50L showcasing exactly how much this put a dent in what was otherwise a decent performance.
Coming into the last for the day with the big G1 in R8, we once again saw some large market movements as the jump came late and automated bots switched their positions off on the exchanges, with the late price on #1 Vow and Declare settling in at an abysmal $13.60 at BSP with even SP beating it at $14.00.
Of course, all eyes are on the big result here as $1099 was traded at $1.02 on #6 Regal Power only to have #7 Fifty Stars jump out of nowhere to get the win whilst we settle in 3rd after a battle-filled run.
Crowd favourite #2 Avilius was nowhere to be found with a horrendous jump having the 6 year old blown all the way to the back with #11 Venice Beach and #14 Miss Siska (the one we’re monitoring for black book) leading well early as we sit back right in the middle of the massive pack.
Coming into the turn at the 600m was where we began to make moves with a perfect position clear in the middle sitting well for us as both #10 Hush Writer and #14 Miss Siska run out of steam as #6 Regal Power made a big run for it.
The 200m was where the drama started as Williams turned on the rocket boosters and we moved #1 Vow and Declare into 2nd trailing the 3 quarters of a length behind #6 Regal Power as the exchange traded all the way down to be rolled by #7 Fifty Stars on the outside with a boost to close the official margin at 0.50L.
We think given the sheer number of runners and the messy map that we had a fantastic go of it with a massive bit of value locked in on #1 Vow and Declare as we give the two mid priced runners a go for their money.
The last minute dash was definitely exciting but we simply didn’t have enough room or energy left in the tank to turn it on, perhaps having left the opportunity between the 600m and the 200m a little bit too late.
As mentioned in the preview we expected to see some exceptional performance out of the big prices with track conditions running havoc in the markets, and this worked out well.
Managing to nab places across #9 Sirius Suspect ($10.00/$11.00), #1 Gytrash ($10.00/$12.64) and #1 Vow and Declare ($14.00/$13.64) is obviously incredibly frustrating, although with a $26.00/$24.88 winner in the pocket we are still sitting pretty in terms of the results.
Having managed to successfully extricate ourselves from a tough day to pick multiple double digit runners that far outperform their market price is certainly a positive mark given that quite a few of them were clearly able to put through runs that most punters simply didn’t find.
As usual – having an opportunity to pick the high value plays is where we find most of our profit over the long run as eventually we find them go from 2nd/3rds and into big price collects that make it well worth the risk.
R4 - 14:05PM - Schweppervescence Trophy (1600m)
R5 - 15:25PM - Furphy Ale March Stakes (1200m)
R6 - 15:25PM - Seppelt Wines Newmarket Handicap (1200m)
R8 - 16:45PM - TAB Australian Cup (2000m)
Want to get in on the action yourself?
Simply choose the Premium Membership that suits you below, and in two clicks you’ll be part of Australia’s best thoroughbreds tips:
- Basic Membership
- The Best Promo Tips Each Week
- Form-Driven High Value Picks
- Easy To Follow Selections Sheet
- Targeting Long-Term 18% POT
- Sent To Your Inbox Each Race Day
- 5-15 Tips Each Week
- Recurs At $149 / Month
- Platinum Membership
- Fully Automated Bet Placement
- 24/7 Direct Betfair Connection
- Settled At Betfair Starting Price
- For The Time-Poor Pro Punter
- Targeting Long-term 15-16% POT
- 5-15 Tips Each Week
- Recurs At $396 / Month
From the moment you activate your subscription you’ll have complete access to our Premium Member Dashboard and you’ll begin to receive race-day selections combined with the very best Corporate Bookmaker Promos in Australia.