Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: -$300.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$115.00 Betfair SP: -$150.00
Surprisingly we saw the late market in R2 come in significantly on both #2 Irish Songs and #6 Jawwaal as money came for our pick #3 Peyton Place with the late price still better than the morning as we hovered up and down around the $8.40 mark before settling in at $7.50/$7.70.
Our second position on #9 Whos Shout was looking healthy at high $9.00s before locking in at $8.50/$8.86.
The big money move came in the last moments of the jump delay as #2 Irish Songs saw a huge amount stacked against it and moving us out to a whopping $6.80 at BSP with less than a minute between the move from high $5.00s.
With the in-play coming down to $2.00 it looked all but over before a kick from #10 Ave threatened to take it down as #11 Denmiss comes out of absolutely nowhere to take us out at $23.85 in yet another big price performance for the day.
Prior to this, #3 Peyton Place looked to be well placed leading the pack at both the 400m and 800m mark before the stitch we spoke about in the preview once again kicked in to take us to a not-so-impressive margin of 4.10L – making us scratch our head at the lack of endurance training that allows us to consistently pick the exact moment the selection is likely to run out of steam.
As expected, #9 Whos Shout hit the outside run that we mentioned in our preview, coming in from a very average 10th at the 400m to position strongly for a final finish just 1.80L behind, a mere 0.50L from 2nd but a decent hit away from taking down #11 Denmiss. Run the same time over this would have been a strong finishing position but the boost was a little later than what we would have liked with a 2nd within ability; although well expected against our calculated form.
With just the last position on #2 Adelong in R4 it’s a short finish to a short day for us as we see the late price continue its trek to sub $2.00 with Platinum members nearly having the position cancelled completely against our rated price of $1.95 leaving very little in there for us to work with.
The late price wasn’t kind as we saw an incredibly limited amount on the exchange keeping us around the $2.10 mark to settle at an SP of $1.90 and a BSP of $2.11 as the late jump works out in our favour.
A glimmer of hope shone for us as prices jumped between #7 Lashes including a huge jump out to $55 and then back sub $3.00 as we fail to see the performance needed in one of our rare short price favourites.
With #7 Lashes making an absolutely monster rocket past the 400m, it was all but over as #2 Adelong gives us her easy lead to finish 2nd.
With the final margin of 2.80L being nowhere near enough to get us home, it’s a small stake loss to make for an uneventful day at Kensington.
Of course, as seems to have been the pattern across the day – “danger doctor smith” to anyone daring to dive head-first into the favourites with maps across the board showing a huge skew between performance and expected prices but not one that has worked out well for us outside of the $10.94 win at Gold Coast.
As stated over in Caulfield, it’s hard to draw many conclusions from the small set of bets that we saw value in playing with today but this will certainly be an interesting set to watch as we add more form data to our books as well as answering a few questions around the performance of quite a few picks that will no doubt be present in our release sheets in the future.
Although over-all we finish up for the day, and we were able to pick quite a few of the areas for concern in both the preview and rated prices; looking at it objectively we would’ve needed the performances to be much tighter to grade the result as favourable.
R2 - 13:50PM - TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400m)
R4 - 15:00PM - SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100m)
Want to get in on the action yourself?
Simply choose the Premium Membership that suits you below, and in two clicks you’ll be part of Australia’s best thoroughbreds tips:
- Basic Membership
- The Best Promo Tips Each Week
- Form-Driven High Value Picks
- Easy To Follow Selections Sheet
- Targeting Long-Term 18% POT
- Sent To Your Inbox Each Race Day
- 5-15 Tips Each Week
- Recurs At $149 / Month
- Platinum Membership
- Fully Automated Bet Placement
- 24/7 Direct Betfair Connection
- Settled At Betfair Starting Price
- For The Time-Poor Pro Punter
- Targeting Long-term 15-16% POT
- 5-15 Tips Each Week
- Recurs At $396 / Month
From the moment you activate your subscription you’ll have complete access to our Premium Member Dashboard and you’ll begin to receive race-day selections combined with the very best Corporate Bookmaker Promos in Australia.