Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$370.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$160.00 Betfair SP: +$185.00
This is a resend – thank you to those members who reported issues with accessing the results; hopefully this little boot up the backside puts everything right again.
We’ve had some issues with emails coming through to smaller providers such as Hotmail, IiNet, Bigpond etc. this week, which we expect to sort themselves out shortly. This is very common with these providers and is something that they manage themselves so there’s nothing we can do except wait. This is definitely not the first time and probably won’t be the last as their infrastructure is years behind the rest.
We finish the day with a bit of profit in the bank despite some rorting results across the rest of the track, with the overall profit for the day essentially break-even as we see no return for the effort at Caulfield.
Starting with R1 and it was frustrating to see #10 Zoffany’s Lad manage the win as we mentioned that we were seeing the 5 year old as the biggest threat despite the SP at $13.00.
From our own internal ratings, we still didn’t have the performance tagged for where we needed it so it still makes sense from a numbers perspective to us, but it’s obviously annoying to have been correct on the analysis but not having the timing right – and we’re now likely to see the price come in significantly on the next start too.
For our pick #7 Yonkers we saw a tight finish in 4th by a small margin of 0.90L as the 4 year old took the costly decision to sit back too long before turning on the guns too late.
Although we definitely saw a go at it to jump in from 6th position at the 400m, it wasn’t quite enough to overcome the traffic with #1 White Boots doing exactly the same thing with #14 Welsh Legend right on the back foot for even more pressure.
In the preview we mentioned that traffic would be the biggest issue here with the number of runners on the untested Soft 6, and this appeared to be a large factor for the run turning out how it did.
In terms of the overlay we got much closer to our target price on Betfair, with Platinum members pulling in a BSP of $5.75 whilst the SP was a far less palatable $4.80 – but still a slight improvement over early prices.
Both #6 Donndubhan and #5 Cyber Intervention failed to fire, with a 7.90L and 3.40L margin respectively as punters finally figured out that the 5 year old was a lackluster pick at best as the price ballooned out to a whopping $7.50 at SP.
From there we took the decision to skip all the way through to R6 with upsets all over the place – most notably #5 Zoustyle in R4 dropping like a dead sack from a 4L margin to finish 7th off an obvious injury.
By now the track grade had come in as expected with the Heavy 9 locked in.
From an analysis perspective R6 basically went right out the window as there was zero rhyme or reason to any of the running as #5 Imaging and #3 Yulong Prince got the best run of the lot, leaving the #4 Cascadian in 3rd at 2.30L and the rest of the pack essentially on another dimension altogether.
Given the horrible conditions we won’t be lending much credence to the results here, although we hope that punters will overestimate the tick come next start and we can manage to nab some larger numbers going in.
R7 was much of the same, with big priced winners and huge margins becoming apparent – whilst #10 Master of Wine dominated in R8 with very little value in the price as expected; good thing we stayed out of both of them!
A little bit of clear skies came our way with the final position in R9 finally allowing for a reasonable collect on #6 Positive Peace at $5.50/$6.70 as the exchanges once again add a massive margin to Platinum members for the day.
With the Heavy 10 finally on the board, we managed a massive margin coming in 2.80L ahead of 2nd place #8 Royal Celebration.
As mentioned in our earlier rain-affected races we won’t be pulling too much out of the analysis simply due to the wicked conditions providing very little in reusable data.
With close to 4 units of profit in the pocket it’s about as much as we could ask for in a day like today, with limited opportunities across the board and a decision to limit the outlay proven to be the right call across a very messy set of results.
R1 - 12:45PM - IRON JACK HANDICAP (1900m)
R6 - 15:45PM - HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500m)
R9 - 17:45PM - CERRONE HANDICAP (1350m)
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