Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$342.06
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$175.00 Betfair SP: +$204.13
As highlighted in our preview, the sticky track was bound to cause massive issues across the day and see plenty of punters go home with their favourites nowhere to be seen – conditions which we’ve been able to fully take advantage of to lock in some very well deserved reward.
An amazing start to the day as #14 Roseirro absolutely destroys our expectations with the move down in weight and the glue of the track being more than enough for the 5 year old to lock in a dominating 2.30L win at a ridiculous $19.00/$21.33.
Whilst we expected performance to be high here – we’ve obviously under-estimated the absolute run that this horse is more than capable of and it’s a shame that we only had the quarter unit out!
Our half unit stake going to #2 Peyton Place, in comparison, leaves little to write home about despite a reasonably strong jump at $10.00/$11.15 as this time around the conditions prove too much to overcome with everyone from 5th back acting as if they’re running on the beach.
Like the winter season – these types of track conditions are unlikely to reflect the normal performance of the runners so we won’t hold it against anyone this time around; although as you can see the decision to limit outlay across the board has once again proven to be the correct play for reducing stake loss and leveraging the highest POT possible.
R3 played exactly as highlighted in the preview, with #1 Lashes comfortably taking the crown as #5 Echo Gem placed second at a very strong price but a not-so-sexy 2.00L followed tightly by #6 Switched at 2.20L.
Not only was there no value to be had here but the early conditions highlighting exactly how messy the track is today is a huge risk against the small prices in the market and we were smart to stick out of this one.
As highlighted in our preview, the money certainly came for #6 Stella Sea Sun in R4 with our price on #3 Jen Rules a massive jet from a stable-ish $7.00 to settle at a very solid $7.97 at BSP which well and truly beat the expectations.
In terms of the performance, we hit our rated price trading down to $4.35 in-play but it wasn’t enough to unseat the late pace as the market bounced between #1 Royal Trader, #2 Commander and #3 Jen Rules in the middle with #6 Stella Sea Sun and #7 Julian Rock the leaders.
In what would be yet another massive upset for the short price favourite (seeing a pattern yet?), #6 Stella Sea Sun traded down to as low as $1.16 before a last second dash from the absolute wheelbarrow #8 No Escape ($37.17 at BSP) made for the second big upset of the day as #7 Julian Rock settles in 2nd and #6 Stella Sea Sun brings up the 3rd.
Like #2 Peyton Place, we won’t be penalising the performers much today as the track setup is, without a doubt, one which we don’t often see during this time of the year – but we’ll be making massive notes to chase it up as we will no doubt see an emotional knee-jerk reaction from the market on the next start as they blindly follow the “last 10” for all their analysis and that’s likely to see some much juicier prices available around horses that are actually very very capable when put in the right spot.
Moving into the Platinum only races we saw liquidity drop out of the markets completely as large punting syndicates and mugs alike appeared to have been scared off by the early track – probably a logical choice for most people and usually outside of the scope of what we would play with hence it being a higher outlay strategy play only.
This time around, we were just under a full unit out on #1 Connemara looking for an overlay at $6.60 as late prices collapsed dramatically from an easy $10.50 to settle at a much shorter $7.58 as late money came for our position instead of the expected crowd favourite #6 Embracer.
For those Basic members who didn’t get the pick and for Platinum members who query our skew towards the early races – this is what we consider a higher risk strategy especially on a day like today. As can be seen from the late market the early edge we saw has been eroded significantly as punters figure out the edge and prices come in against us with our 5-6 hour head-start finally being picked apart.
In this case, although we hit the overlay trading down to $4.40 by a margin of 33.33%, it wasn’t enough for us to overcome #6 Embracer who was always well rated but simply not enough value compared to our own position.
With that being said, the lack of money in the market seeing the drop from $10.00+ is disappointing as the value proposition starts to look far less valuable; and this is a trend that we see happen more often than note which is yet another reason why we prefer earlier races where our edge is yet to be discovered.
Finishing 4th, it certainly wasn’t the result that we were after despite hitting the raw numbers reflected in our outlay.
Heading into the last bet of the day it was just over a full unit out on #13 Magic Over The Bay, with the rated price of $5.90 looking incredibly weak in the late market as punters jump off #4 Word for Word and #5 Mr Dependable and force us below the rated price, cancelling it for all Platinum members as the edge is no longer to be found.
The run in-play was massive as we traded down past $2.40 well and truly smashing through our rating, with a late run from #11 Birth of Venus managing to take the trifecta away from the market favourites.
With the position being cancelled, Platinum members were spared the stake loss against the BSP of just $5.84.
Just like our 1st position, the late market is typically filled with the sharper bettors and a combination of public variables and liquidity once again proves that we’re better off sticking with the earlier half for most cases where we can take full advantage of our edge and market sentiment.
Although we obviously finish the day at Rosehill with a big highlight in #14 Roseirro, the small outlay combined with consistent stake loss against a handful of close positions at Flemington means we finish just a little over break-even from the two tracks.
In retrospect it seems obvious that we should have put more on here, but looking at it from an objective perspective we don’t expect that race run in better conditions to perform as well as it did for us, and particularly with more unpredictability around these types of tracks we’re still happy that we made the right choice to limit staking for today.
This kind of outcome is definitely frustrating but considering the likely mess that most Punters found themselves in today – we’ll take a small profit/break-even result over a loss any day of the week.
With that being said, we continue to be very close to turning a few of those places into big wins so with a bit more volume and continued adherence to identifying high value picks we’re far more likely to turn a couple of days into big winning ones.
Of course, zooming out and looking at the bigger picture – if you’ve been on board for a while you’ll already be laughing your way to the bank having produced an almost entire bank turn-over in profit since September.
R2 - 13:40PM - TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500m)
R4 - 14:50PM - NSW BOOKMAKER CO-OPERATIVE HANDICAP (1350m)
R7 - 16:50PM - BILL WATERHOUSE HANDICAP (1100m)
R8 - 17:30PM - BOOKMAKER RECOGNITION RACEDAY TROPHY (2000m)
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