Meeting Results Summary
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A disappointing result from our 2-bet sheet today as we fail to see any return for the effort across our very small sample size.
With conditions causing hassles across the track, we made the right choice to limit outlay today, but we largely failed to see the runs that we were expecting on our positions.
Together with the numbers out of Caulfield, we’re essentially break-even so it’s not a big blow to the bank by any measure – just a lack of collect on some of those larger prices that we need to turn the month’s results around.
Starting late in R5 we managed a very strong late price on #5 Inanup as our half stake maintained a $10.46 at BSP, whilst Corporates came in slightly to $8.50.
Unfortunately that’s the end of the good news, as #5 Inanup went all the way to the back of the field with some absolutely horrendous sticky conditions seeing a huge effort from #1 Greyworm making it look easy.
We had about as good a position as you could ask for in the late as we finish reasonably well at a margin of 3.10L a huge recovery considering the relatively short 1.40L to 2nd and the abysmal start that we had.
It looked like the outside was far more favourable and this is likely the cause for the late return – but with such a short track length and a massive head start on #1 Greyworm it would have required a herculean effort to get us anywhere near the finish line.
A much more favourable jump may have resulted in a smaller margin, but with no distance to get the full benefit of the recovery we’ll pick up a very lackluster result as our first.
With the final position in R7 it’s a frustrating race as one of our special mentions #8 Brandenburg took full advantage of the track to nab a win at a whopping $41.00 to take down market favourite #2 Microphone by 0.60L.
#7 Pancho also hit above his weight, with the 3 year old coming an admirable 4th at $21.00 with a 1.90L margin a not-too-bad result given the factors at play.
For our own position, we had #3 Warning rated at around the $7.00 mark, whilst #1 Castelvacchio, as mentioned in the preview, saw the price jump out significantly to finish with an incredibly average performance smack bang in the middle.
We also mentioned that #5 Kubrick was a weird black hole for the analysis, but managed to somehow maintain the $5.50 price, finishing behind us and just 0.10L ahead of $41.00 #11 Fortress Command.
In terms of the run itself we had sat far back and left the run too late, with an incredible move at the 200m mark well played by Berry, but simply a case of too little, too late.
Obviously in these types of conditions it’s hard to be too harsh on any set of runners, with strategy mostly flying out the window.
We did pick the pace quite accurately in R7 – it’s just frustrating that this was the one that proved the king maker for #8 Brandenburg and not one where we would’ve had better conditions to be more confident in the runner.
In terms of limited outlay we would argue that the margins on the winners across the rest of the races today were far too indicative of track conditions playing a massive part, and reviewing the market around those times we simply can’t see how the value adds up – although the strike rate would have been quite high all things considered.
R5 - 15:15PM - BLUE DATTO FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100m)
R7 - 16:30PM - ARROWFIELD HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400m)
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