Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$349.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$175.00 Betfair SP: +$174.50
An okay finish for us today at Rosehill Gardens as we lock in the profit late off some very so-so form and pace causing issues for our earlier bets.
Whilst it’s certainly not a huge amount worth crowing about, it’s an improvement over the past couple of weeks which has seen the results go the way of the favourites and a large swing in variance well and truly away from our dominating 6 month winning streak.
With that being said, it’s a disappointing run to start us off in R1 as we started off well with #12 Sausedge missing the jump leaving a gap wide open for us to shoot out to a comfortable spot in what seemed to be a great position to camp in.
A couple of hundred meters later, however, it looked like we were stuck in quicksand as there was no pressing of the advantage or a speed up despite the track beginning to quickly run out.
In-play our numbers bounced back and forth with traders nabbing around the $5 mark – nowhere near the $3.39 rated price.
Coming into the bend we kept with a relatively good position as we waited and waited for the jet to come through the 400m.
Of course, this is where the deal was sealed, with our runner still stuck in the quick sand as #10 Royal Celebration plied the position to run up the outside as #4 Purple Sector runs out of steam, pushing #7 Top Prospect into a sandwich with #7 Condor the spam and #12 Sausedge the bread on the outside.
Without a doubt it was the inability to double down on the run taken at 250m with the replay showing the damage caused by #4 Purple Sector falling back and into the lane of #7 Top Prospect, with the final result just a very average 2.70L.
R4 is up next and it’s an absolutely abysmal end to the race from #6 Mount Tabora in a very disappointing finale to what was a great early attempt as #2 Night’s Watch, #8 Aliferous and #7 Shadow Flight absolutely dominate the field to finish with just 0.30L between the trifecta.
The recovery from #2 Night’s Watch is the most impressive part of the race as in-play traders would have been very happy to see the jump fail completely, whilst we managed what appeared to be a strong early position claiming 3rd coming out the gates and settling comfortably in 2nd.
In terms of the market, Platinum members got the better end of the stick as we jumped at a BSP of $11.09, whilst the official SP was a far shorter $9.00.
Coming into the 800m and there was still some very strong pace from the leaders, whilst we managed to maintain a reasonable 3rd with just a small slow-down in the 4 year old seen around the 1000m mark but still with what should have been plenty of life left to run with #11 House of Cartier and .
It was right on the turn where the crunch came as Marquand failed to pull anything out of the gelding, sending us right back into the middle of the pack and a bit of a panic for our runner as he absolutely did not enjoy having a pair of competitors jump out of “nowhere”.
Although there was still a small opportunity to recover, the deal was sealed when #8 Aliferous sped through the diagonal gap, locking us in to the back with the decision to let the accelerator off probably the best thing to be done.
That leaves us with an absolutely huge margin of 12.30L, with plenty of mistakes around pace the area we’re most concerned about on a horse that is otherwise very easy to run under McEvoy and Zahra.
Moving into R5 and it’s #12 Handle The Truth at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively, giving Platinum members just a little under the margin required to cover the commission as the late market maintains reasonably well with plenty of cash going the way of #9 Villami.
From the jump it was a relatively tight group to overcome as we sit reasonably well in the 5th position as #9 Villami pops second just behind the leader #7 Vegadaze.
Our plan of coming through the outside was put to rest on the turn as #11 Spanish Dream blocked our exit route with a hole opening up just past the 400m point with the pace to kick it absolutely not coming.
As mentioned in the preview, we needed to get out clear from the pack early on with the short 1200m leaving very little margin for error, and it was the danger around traffic that proved our undoing as we simply weren’t able to get in the right line.
Most frustratingly, the blockage from #11 Spanish Dream provided absolutely nothing in terms of an advantage for Spriggs as he managed to finish more than double the length at a whopping 14.70L.
#9 Villami coming in 6th will definitely be a tough pill for punters to swallow as the $3.80 favourite was well backed, as the massive price around #7 Vegadaze gets the upset.
Fortunately we had a much needed win to take us back into profit for the day in R8 as #14 Positive Peace once again nets us the cookie (having been our savior in the middle of the month as well).
Jumping at $7.50/$7.49 there was little margin for us at the late market as the price comes in from the early $10.00 to cut into a bit of the profit against our rated price of $4.65.
As we maintained very comfortably in 2nd, #8 Sweet Deal managed to shoot out just behind us with the $3.10 favourite maintaining a break-neck pace that left little in the tank as the shortie fails to get anywhere near the overlay we would have needed for a bet.
Coming around the turn and it was a perfect example of great horsemanship as we avoided the troubling traffic that we saw in earlier races to push the advantage as we get the head in front come 400m.
With #5 Miss Fabulass attempting to make some late moves, #14 Positive Peace turned on the boosters as we get clear past the 100m mark with a diagonal spread of the other leaders failing to put a dent in our form.
With a margin of 1.30L a very reasonable effort against the price, we save the day at Rosehill Gardens to end our streak of traffic-induced losses.
Although we bring home enough fat to chew on for today, we’re not super happy with the results here having a set of runners fail against some critical errors that really should not have happened.
Keeping in mind that we’re in a not-ideal period for racing – and in fact we’re pretty damned lucky to be alive at all – there are plenty of variables around jockeys being forced to switch and some emergency changes, but we built the analysis expecting few of these variables to affect us.
Certainly the track conditions didn’t help, with the Soft 7 showing a strong bias against the barrier and making it seem like an uphill battle for anyone caught in the middle of the pack.
With that being said, outside of some issues around stamina in #6 Mount Tabora we’ll be kind to the picks today with plenty of non-runner based variables likely to see the price shoot out next start if punters look only at the margins and fail to spot the in-play reasons for failures.
Combined with the small outlay at Morphettville, we’ll still finish ahead ever so slightly, saving the day’s bank for the next shot which hopefully sees things go our way a bit more.
R1 - 12:30PM - RANVET HANDICAP (1400m)
R4 - 14:30PM - IRON JACK NEVILLE SELLWOOD (2000m)
R5 - 15:10PM - E-GROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200m)
R8 - 17:10PM - JIM BEAM EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500m)
Want to get in on the action yourself?
Simply choose the Premium Membership that suits you below, and in two clicks you’ll be part of Australia’s best thoroughbreds tips:
- Basic Membership
- The Best Promo Tips Each Week
- Form-Driven High Value Picks
- Easy To Follow Selections Sheet
- Targeting Long-Term 18% POT
- Sent To Your Inbox Each Race Day
- 5-15 Tips Each Week
- Recurs At $149 / Month
- Platinum Membership
- Fully Automated Bet Placement
- 24/7 Direct Betfair Connection
- Settled At Betfair Starting Price
- For The Time-Poor Pro Punter
- Targeting Long-term 15-16% POT
- 5-15 Tips Each Week
- Recurs At $396 / Month
From the moment you activate your subscription you’ll have complete access to our Premium Member Dashboard and you’ll begin to receive race-day selections combined with the very best Corporate Bookmaker Promos in Australia.