Meeting Results Summary
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No return for the effort over at Royal Randwick as the Heavy 8 mirrors the issues over at Caulfield as we see big problems around both pace and map as we see the only consistency is our ability to land in the middle of the track, with the only benefit being that almost every selection drifted out to a roughie price late.
Despite starting R3 with a decent price on #4 Animate at an SP and BSP of $7.50/$7.60 respectively we fail to find the ground we need despite maintaining a reasonably strong position all through the 1400m.
#9 Great Danger leads the jump with a burst of stamina that proves costly come the finish, as #11 Stella Sea Sun soon sits comfortably in 2nd as we trail well in 3rd with a great little stride as Marquand has to calm the 3 year old down a bit as the gelding isn’t happy being led.
Unlike Caulfield we don’t see the same sticky start to the track despite the Heavy 8, but come the 800m we see the leaders unable to keep up the margin as the middle of the pack makes up for the early lengths left behind.
Coming up to the 400m mark and the here is where the issues starts to show as we get pushed right into the rail with #9 Great Danger continuing to lead as the rest of the pack well and truly catches up for a run up the middle.
It’s here that we see a great bit of strategy into the 300m as we cross diagonally to push #14 Stella Sea Sun back into the flanks and attempt to up the speed, but we’re swallowed through the gap as the more comfortable pace set by the middle of the group manages to find the sweet spot with #2 Through the Cracks, #15 Moana Jewel and #5 Oxford Tycoon all managing to turn the late position into a strong place.
As mentioned in the preview we were particularly concerned with the danger around #2 Through the Cracks, whilst concerns around #10 Asharani failed to fruit.
Whilst traffic played a big role here, we think that all three front-runners went too hard and failed to position themselves well coming into the straight – although Marquand gets massive credit for the great attempt that, under a Good 4, likely would have resulted in the win going his way.
Given the issues around the tracks today, we’re also not being too harsh on the performance here and there’s nothing that really sticks out to us as a critical flaw in the running ability – it’s just unfortunate we weren’t able to maintain the same energy coming into the final stretch.
Moving into R5 and it’s another strong price around our runner with #2 Eleven Eleven coming into at a big $15.00/$15.85 let down only by leaving the jet too late as we turn a very poor position at both the 800m and 400m mark into what, under today’s conditions, we would consider a relatively close 5th.
For us this is the race that was worst run today – with most of the issues across the other runs being down to getting an unkind map – in this case being tied squarely to some horrendous riding and not allowing the horse to run to its full potential.
Case in point – we had the jump go very well for us to shoot out to 2nd before Rawiller made the very strange decision to pull back the speed in what was the first of the critical mistakes for our run as he allowed #6 Hawker Hurricane to take control over our lane and forcing us all the way to last position.
We’re really not sure what the strategy was here or why he decided to pull back – there was absolutely no reason that we can see for it, and our runner was more than happy to go full speed (as we needed).
We can see exactly how hamstrung #2 Eleven Eleven was by this ride as we hit the 400m mark jetting out deep to be rebuffed once again by #6 Hawker Hurricane as the speed simply wasn’t there come the 200m.
With that being said, this race was well and truly led by #3 Splintex and #9 Flit after massive stitched attempts from the $41.00 runner #8 Human Nature and $7.50 mid-market favourite #12 California Zimbol failed to convert late. Despite their weird finishes being trapped without room to me, we had pegged both of them in the preview as being capable of putting in a performance far and above their market price and saw this in action most of the way through the track.
Interestingly, #1 Cosmic Force was nowhere to be seen as the 3 year old failed to put in even a modicum of effort trailing 6th at both the 800m and 400m mark before finishing 7th behind a $41, $15 and $26 group of runners.
With that being said, we really have no blame at all here for #2 Eleven Eleven – we see absolutely reason why we wouldn’t have had a killing run at it had we managed the early speed and not been kicked in the groin by having to make up for it across the 2nd half of the track.
Not. Happy. Jan!
R8 came and went with nary a peep from our pick as we locked in a great price at $13.00/$14.48 but left the run too late to convert with #2 Addeybb taking the crown as we called the trifecta and the trouble from #4 Te Akau Shark almost perfectly.
Unfortunately, that did little for us in terms of a collect with massive margins clear across the board as 6th position onward saw almost a doubling of the distance between the front pack in a show-case of yet another sticky Heavy 8 with the long track giving little opportunity to recover.
#7 Gailo Chop is obviously the one of most concern to punters as the 9 year old absolutely stormed out of the gates to lead the entire race despite the $151.00 SP that would have threatened to take down more than a few of the winning tickets, before finishing dead last at a margin of 16.70L.
#10 Master of WIne wasn’t nearly as impressive but we managed a decent jump only to be caught in the flanks of the three leaders abreast, before making a smart decision to retreat deep to save some of the stamina and try to lock in a better position.
Our main concern going in here was the complete lack of speed which we think was probably too much of an overreaction with the risk being that we let the leaders get out far too comfortably without the guarantee that we’ll have firm footing to make it all back.
Pace continued largely the same through the 1200m with #7 Gailo Chop an absolute gun sitting four lengths ahead before all steam disappeared around the 600m mark being pushed up to that dreadful position in the barrier.
As the groups collapsed together, this was our opportunity to make a run for it as we try to come up from the deep. Unfortunately it’s here where we get stuck at the pass coming to the 400m and all but putting in a pin in the possibility of getting the late position.
Like so many of the other runs today, there’s a clear connection between a lack of smart strategy – taking too many risks in unpredictable conditions and expecting to right it late.
Unfortunately for us, #2 Addeybb had far too much of a dominating lead, whilst #12 Verry Elleegant and #1 Danon Premium both manage exceptional late positions that lock us in.
Whilst not a terrible run from #10 Master of Wine, we certainly weren’t given the ride that we needed to excel.
Locking in our last at R9 and it’s make our break for the results at Royal Randwick as we get $13.00/$12.42 (a rare BSP gaff) on #9 Positive Peace as we lead across the entire track before once again giving it up at the straight and failing to place.
We certainly had the early jump go well for us as Hyeronimus enjoyed locking the legs and riding the mare out the gates with some excellent speed setting the pace with #13 Amangiri and #12 Spanish Reef both following up early efforts.
With not much action through-out the middle, we maintain a strong 2nd through the 800m before the butt comes down at the 600m to turn the jets on coming into the turn as #3 Con Te Partiro manages the stronger position on the outside as we hit the 200m mark and are sent hurtling across the diagonal to recover.
From here there’s just absolutely no scratching back the margin as #3 Con Te Partiro takes full advantage of traffic to send the rivals back into each other, with #17 Funstar putting in a decent effort to run up the rail after trailing 11th at an SP of $2.80.
Contrasting to the other races, we think the ride was pretty well managed this time around but we were outclassed on the straight despite a fantastic effort to keep it all together as #9 Positive Peace showed clear issues around the stamina with a sticky run past the 200m being made even more of a disadvantage as we’re forced to cross lanes and fail to recover.
#3 Con Te Partiro was incredibly well ridden by Clarky, with the strategic hit from deep proving to be the attack that proved the most devastating.
We’re a little frustrated that we weren’t able to maintain the same pressure as we had early – given the conditions we probably would’ve needed a slightly shorter length in order to get there without the stitch coming into play.
Not a fantastic result as we see most of the races dominated well in the early and mid strides before giving it back at the end and failing to collect.
A lot of the variables in days like today obviously come down to the not ideal conditions with plenty of luck – both good and bad – making or breaking runs.
We’ve seen jockeys try to be too smart more than once today and that’s been the trend that we can identify across both tracks as causing massive amounts of mayhem for us.
The most disappointing run was without a doubt #2 Eleven Eleven in R5 and we would love to see this pick have another shot at it under another jockey as we still stand by our analysis that there’s a sleeping giant waiting to be let out.
For the moment, we’ll hope for an improvement in the weather and another shot at it shortly under better conditions.
R3 - 12:45PM - POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)
R5 - 13:55PM - ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200m)
R8 - 15:55PM - LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)
R9 - 16:35PM - COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600m)
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