Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: -$500.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: -$180.00 Betfair SP: -$250.00
Nothing to write home about over at Royal Randwick today as we see yet another essentially break-even day against the numbers from Caulfield as we miss out on the nose of #11 Greysful Glamour in R6 and see our roughies produce some mixed results.
We skipped over a messy R1 to finish R2 with #10 Miss Invincible dropping to dead last after sitting pretty across most of the track as we nab a slightly shorter $8.50/$8.32 on our first play of the day.
We highlighted that #1 Snitz would be a bit of a worry for us, and the 5 year old absolutely blew away all expectations as the gelding dominated at an SP of $12.00 and a whopping margin of 1.80L.
#10 Miss Invincible hit the jump well to shoot out to the lead early alongside #1 Snitz and #2 Star Boy as we saw the beginnings of the group split occur incredibly early against some very high speed from the front runners.
Passing the 600m and there isn’t much of a change going with the pack of three still keeping it tight as we get the outside pressure on the turn in an attempt to push the competition into the rail, with the threat from the backside as #15 Jen Rules threatens to put a pin in our run.
Of course, it’s a moot point as we see our girl give a weird little kick around the 360m mark before 280m hits and it’s clear that we she wants to go back to a canter before the desperate head whip comes at the 250m with Clarky finally getting the hint to let her come down to a comfortable pace.
Clearly something has gone wrong and we hope that she’s okay – still no news yet about exactly what it was but it’s pretty obvious she’s run into some sort of trouble.
Obviously that does absolutely nothing for our betting position – an incredibly frustrating start to the day as we were perfectly placed to give it all she had coming into the last few hundred meters.
R3 went the way of the $1.85 favourite, although those big cash backers would’ve been sweating it as $12 #6 Subpoenaed finishes just 0.20L off an embarrasing shot to the “sure thing” (and yet another reason to avoid the sub $2.00s!)
Our own kiwi position wasn’t quite that tight, however, as #6 Chuck a Luck throws a very good position to finish 4th as we see a weird price on the exchanges with SP at $7.00 and Betfair just $6.59 (a little under $6.00 post NSW comms) for an abysmal bit of value as prices failed to stabilise on the P2P platform.
The jump went our way with an early lead coming up on #3 Entente before we pulled the speed back to let #9 Gone Bye run himself raw as we sat comfortably just behind #10 Reluctant as things stay rather consistent coming into 1400m.
As we push through the 1200m we’ve got the smarter position on the rail as #9 Gone Bye starts to slow down, taking #10 Reluctant with him as the painful pace has all the energy gone out completely. By comparison, #3 Entente is doing much better although the unnecessary margin is probably unwarranted this early as we hit 1100m and a clear advantage.
Coming to the first bend at 600m and we’re still sitting in 3rd with the rest of the pack largely unable to make up the distance, before the turn comes at 400m and #3 Entente takes off.
We manage to get off the fence and make a go of it, but coming just into the 200m we see an absolutely abysmal move from Hyeronimus as he pulls out of rhythm to take #6 Chuck a Luck up in the wrong direction.
The critical mistake costs us the rhythm and it’s here that #12 Kinane goes head down to take full advantage at 90m as all speed goes out of #3 Entente’s massive lead, and we finish 4th with a margin of 3.20L.
We were the happiest with the early and middle parts of the race, but there’s plenty of criticism to be thrown at the turn with this now being the 2nd week in a row where we’ve seen this jockey run well early before making some very amateur mistakes at the key parts of the finish.
Whilst the finish isn’t that terrible compared to the rest of the field, we can spot the issues a mile away and he certainly wasn’t given the full spectrum of freedom to perform.
R6 was the most frustrating result for us today as we miss out by just 0.20L after running 1st across the entire track in yet another 2nd for the day.
The early jump was fantastic as the grey shot up the outside to lead early with only #7 Norway putting in enough speed to give us any bit of hint of danger.
Of course, our mare absolutely excels at keeping up the stamina as we push the margin at the 1400m to a handful of lengths against #9 Oceanex and #3 Best of Days as the rest of the pack looks to be running in quick sand.
1100m becomes 800m and there’s zero show of the gorgeous example of the grey mottling looking to slow down as #7 Norway starts to show signs of fatigue outside the 600m, with the pack finally catching up coming into 400m.
There was a bit of concern around sticking so close to the rail but no such problem for our monster of a mare as she uses the turn to suck all the speed out of #9 Oceanex before the turn of foot kicks in again and she shoots out to the front.
200m comes, and it’s easily 3 lengths and a bit the margin as it looks all but over before #4 Life Less Ordinary gets a second wind at the 90m and puts on a show to get the neck and nose ahead by just 0.20L.
In our preview we pegged #5 Shared Ambition as being incapable of making a repeat of his earlier career wins, and we’re once again proven correct off the early analysis as the late price comes out to $4.40 as more than a handful of afternoon punters come to the same conclusion.
For our own run, there’s really not that much that we can pick apart – she was absolutely marvelous across the entire track and it’s the lack of strength and position across the rest of the field which handed #4 Life Less Ordinary the opportunity on a platter, rather than a shortcoming of our own runner.
In particular, the push up on #7 Norway to the fence was a smart strategic move from Ms King (and we’ve been impressed more than once with some of her tactics) but in a weird way it also removed the pressure from the inside which, in this case, was a big benefit to her competitors.
Easily the most frustrating result for the meeting, and probably 2nd only to our small margin defeat on #7 Think We’re Due over at Caulfield.
R7 the next one for us to jump and it’s another disappointing result as we see #3 Dreamforce collapse late after a very strong start, whilst our half unit on #12 Brandenburg kept a consistent spot in the middle that certainly outperformed the price but failed to get anywhere close as #9 Tofane and #1 Pierata make it a photo finish well and truly ahead of the rest of the field.
Hitting 1000m and we were doing pretty well on #3 Dreamforce as we sat comfortably in the pocket as #8 White Moss puts the speed out early in front of #10 Fasika whilst #12 Brandenburg is well and truly stuck in the mud with the majority of the field in the middle coming in around 8th.
Heading on and it looked like we were still confident with #3 Dreamforce as #1 Pierata was happy to sit in our shadow before making the decision to shoot to the outside and getting rewarded with a clear run up the middle.
We saw no hope for #12 Brandenburg, having been caught well and truly in traffic, whilst the concern for #3 Dreamforce was obvious as we couldn’t find an opening to get off the rail after coming in the turn at the 400m.
Just after the 300m was our only real opportunity as #8 White Moss cuts across the field, but Rawiller makes a super dodgy choice to instead pull back behind the rest of the field and all but guaranteeing he’d be trapped before the speed all but disappeared.
Of course, by now it’s all a moot point as the two leaders #1 Pierata and #9 Tofane put on an absolute show for an incredibly strong performance that would have always been difficult to beat.
Unfortunately for us, it was largely an opportunity gifted to them by some very weird late pace decisions that cost us dearly on the results sheet.
The final one for us today was R9 with #2 The Lord Mayor taking on an incredibly late price around the $100 mark on the exchanges before pulling back significantly to jump at just $52.84 on BSP as a very very late start plays havoc with the market.
Unlike the rest of our roughies that managed a pretty good go at it, the money was definitely wasted here on #2 The Lord Mayor with very little effort being put it at any part of the field.
Without a doubt, this is the worst performance on our sheets for the day, with many of the other low rankers at least having a decent shot at it and being let down either by jockeying or injury.
There’s very little that’s worth talking about here, with #15 Phaistos correctly identified in the preview but one that we didn’t pull the trigger on.
Having spoken to a few of our members about what seems like an “obvious” choice – you can see the margins against the rest of the field including the $26 winner, and the 2 x $13 runner ups in 3rd and 4th who were 0.20L and 0.30L behind respectively – it’s hardly a margin that screams value at $4.60.
With that being said, it obviously would have been far closer to the goal than our actual bet, but from a value and ratings perspective it was always going to be a secondary bet for us that simply didn’t make the scratch against the staking plan.
We definitely think that the result over at Caulfield was far more indicative of the performances that we expect from some of the larger numbers, although we’re obviously skirting the edge on the big wins with just tiny differences more than enough to bring us into a healthy profit.
#11 Greysful Glamour is obviously the perfect example of this, and nobody can control for injuries like we obviously saw in #10 Miss Invincible in our first after a very dominating start and middle to the run.
Across both tracks we saw examples of bad jockeying take down our runner’s performance, rather than the pick being unable to perform, which is just one of those variables which is always incredibly frustrating to deal with – especially when it takes down an otherwise great run.
Hopefully with a bit of luck our next volley will see the strike rate jump up – we really only needed a few small things to go our way to make a big difference to the results.
R2 - 12:35PM - CATANACH'S SPRINT (1200m)
R4 - 13:45PM - CACTUS IMAGING FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000m)
R6 - 15:00PM - JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION PLATE (2000m)
R7 - 15:40PM - SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400m)
R9 - 16:55PM - JCDECAUX HANDICAP (1400m)
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