Meeting Results Summary
Platinum Profit:Betfair SP: +$403.00
Basic Premium Profit:Corp SP: +$175.00 Betfair SP: +$201.50
A nice little mid-week bonus as we lock in a bit of profit over at Sandown in a solid pay-out to our first real strategic return to the mid-week in quite some time.
It was a nail biting finish to our first bet with #4 Hard ‘n’ Tough certainly making the name proud as we bounced out early and went neck and neck against #11 Music of the Night.
The in-play was a little harder to follow with the liquidity sitting at about a third of what we see on a Saturday but it was still great to see us be the first to drop below the $2.00 mark although a late bounce out to $6.00 seemed like it could be all over with #11 Music of the Night hitting around $1.40. We finally looked to dominate as the market flipped back to $1.22 and then the final win at an official margin of 0.20L a well deserved collect in a very tough battle.
Prices managed to hold up against the weaker market as some late money came to support with a final SP of $5.50 just a small margin in the favour of BSP which sat at $6.03 essentially giving us just over the commission on the exchange and enough for us to cover the other 2 units outlay for the day as we pulled in a little over 5 units in profit.
As expected, poor #3 Murphy’s Delight came dead last at 11.05L with the next position a much shorter 7.55L off the leader from Musgrove’s other wheelbarrow. Frankly we’re still miffed that someone would even race him when he should be off enjoying his late age in peace and well deserved rest.
In the preview we mentioned that #7 Vinaceous has a tendency to be incredibly inconsistent with the form and we were right on the money again as she managed to let the stitch get the best of her and give up a dominating run leading at both the 800m and the 400m. Frankly she’s a strong runner but much more suited for the 1600m range and with a shortening of the track it probably would’ve been a much tougher one to take down.
With just 8 minutes to go before the jump in R6 we still saw less than $10k sitting on the exchanges show-casing exactly how little money there is to play mid-week as #5 Darlamax comes in from a comfortable $6.40 to hover at a value dipping $5.10 as the tiniest bit of money coming for any of the runners throws out the book completely.
We had #5 Darlamax rated at $4.14 – it’s just disappointing to once again see the market take a dive the moment someone sneezes on it.
Both #3 Think Were Due and #11 Touch of Mink saw massive pumps out past the $8.00 mark as the rest of the punters followed our early position having finally found the value on #5 Darlamax and leaving us very thin thanks to a very late bot movement laying off as the 3 minute delay plays havoc with the automated betting syndicates.
Fortunately, it didn’t matter very much as one of the messiest races of the day pipes up with #6 La Belle Jude, #10 Anything But and #8 Metronome making a farce of the field as the 3 favourites bite the dust, #12 Flandersrain gets the cookie and #5 Darlamax is removed late causing issues with Betfair and refunds for all of us.
We managed to record the BSP of $5.07 and SP of $4.80 before it was removed with a ~16.1% share of the market so it did nobody any favours across the rest of the field as the deductions cut into any profit to be had.
With much healthier numbers in the last for us in R8 we managed to see our pick #17 Rapidora recover from the early price dump to jump out past $9.20 on the exchanges before settling at just $7.00 at SP against a far meatier $8.35 at BSP.
Interestingly, the market abandoned #2 Bams on Fire at $2.80 to settle in at a whopping $5.00 over at Betfair as the value proposition looks much healthier at almost double the early price – helped by a late go that nabbed the win by a very strong margin of 1.5L.
The money well and truly came for #13 Rainbow Thief in what didn’t make any sense at all as the Kiwi is still far too green around the edges to command such respect, nabbing the mug boxed trifecta along with #9 Jumbo Ozaki, just 1.25L ahead of our own bet.
Like #2 Bams on Fire, the crowd confidence went well and truly against #9 Jumbo Ozaki, with only the settled price of $4.74 at BSP saving the runner from a burn as the gelding sits pretty as 2nd favourite.
We weren’t super happy with the early run from #17 Rapidora with a very average pace losing out and giving the advantage over to #2 Bams on Fire before settling awkwardly to finish 3.75L behind in what is probably a performance much closer to the market price rather than our rated price of $5.71 with the overlay nowhere near where the mare is capable of putting it.
Going forward the silver lining is that we’re likely to see a much bigger price available around her – with anything $13.00+ possible if sentiment sours off this last start.
Whilst we always expected #2 Bams on Fire to do excellently (and we sung plenty of praises in the preview) it’s a shame that the price was so lopsided coming into the release as a $5.00 pop would have been an excellent opportunity, although given actual liquidity it’s unlikely that many Basic members would have managed to get anywhere near that price as the Corporates claw the book to shreds at an SP of $4.00.
Whilst it’s been an average day in terms of race quality, we manage to knock in a handful of much needed units after the repeat places over the weekend left the weekly results looking a bit deflated against the break-even numbers.
We’ve got lots of racing coming up this long weekend so this places us well and truly ahead for the week with a solid 4 units or so in profit as we sit ever so slightly behind where we’d like to be so late in the month.
With that being said, we’ve still got chances galore to return Basic members to our standard monthly profit, whilst Platinum members are already sitting very pretty with a little under 18 units of profit in the bag for the first month of 2020.
Going forward we’re aware that most of you won’t be able to access bets during the mid-week work-day so if you’ve got a reasonably sized bank an upgrade to the Platinum automated system may be a reasonable solution as we expect that mid-week will once again become more common over the next few weeks of racing.
As another repeat of the early warning – we’ll shortly be closing up subscriptions to new members. Right now we’re not seeing issues with prices caused by too many subscribers but instead by lack of liquidity in the markets.
With that being said, we’re very aware of how tipping services can begin to move a market and we constantly have eagle eyes on ours with several members of our team having previously being responsible for the inner workings at quite a few well-known services in Australia and seeing first-hand how a bit of greed on the tipster side can absolutely decimate value for Members.
Since we essentially make more money backing our own tips than through subscriber fees, the last thing we need is to shoot ourselves in the foot by trying to take too much of the cake.
This does mean that we’ll be freezing in upgrades with the Platinum service the first to clam up followed by the Basic members shortly after; so if you are after an option for taking some work off your plate then definitely reply to this email so we can sort you with an upgrade to Platinum.
Outside of that, we’ll be keeping on as we gear up for yet another big season as we inch ever so closer to our 2nd public birthday.
Enjoy the rest of your week and we’ll see you in a few short days for another stab at it as we debate internally whether we’ll have a go at a Friday twilight or if we keep monitoring and stick with the good stuff on Saturday.
R4 - 16:50PM - The Big Screen Company Handicap (2100m)
R6 - 18:00PM - Clanbrooke Racing Handicap (1600m)
R8 - 19:00PM - New MRC '3 Race Day' Membership Handicap (1200m)
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